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China’s consumption growth surprises analysts, and outlook for exports and property market remains uncertain

  • China’s economy had staged an impressive recovery from the impact of the coronavirus until numerous headwinds began taking their toll on economic growth
  • NBS official tells the Post that official database was recently updated with more historical data ‘to promote openness and transparency of statistics’

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China’s retail sales grew by 4.9 per cent in October compared with a year earlier, up from a 4.4 per cent increase in September. Photo: Reuters

China’s economy showed signs of stabilising in October as retail sales and industrial production bounced back from the previous month and beat expectations, but officials and experts are warning of a bleak outlook in the recovery due to pandemic uncertainties and global supply-chain issues.

Sporadic outbreaks of Covid-19 have dampened economic momentum, said Sheana Yue, an assistant economist with Capital Economics. As the outbreaks continue, movements will continue to be limited, and consumption growth will remain slow. However, “any near-term virus-linked disruptions should prove temporary”, Yue added.

Yue also warned that the current strength of China’s exports is unlikely to be sustainable over the coming year, as global consumption patterns normalise coming out of the pandemic, and as backlogs of orders are gradually cleared. China’s exports have been defying expectations and warnings of a slowdown, but data has shown that while export values have increased, the volumes of many goods have not.
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Her assessment came after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday spoke of growing “positive factors” in China’s economic recovery.

“However, it should also be noted that there are still many factors of international instability and uncertainty,” NBS spokesman Fu Linghui said. “There are still constraints on the recovery of the domestic economy, and the upwards cost pressure on enterprises is increasing.”

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