US-China phase-one trade deal gets a reality check after nearly two years
- USTR Katherine Tai has said the US intends to hold China accountable to the two-year phase-one trade deal while exploring weaknesses in Beijing’s performance
- Analysts expect high tariffs to persist in China-US trade in the long term
As the two-year deadline for the phase-one trade deal between the world’s two largest economies is approaching, all eyes are on the next step.
Signed in January 2020, the deal was considered a ceasefire agreement between China and the United States following a two-year trade war that originated from a Section 301 investigation by the US in 2018, when Washington said Beijing had engaged in unfair trade practices such as intellectual property (IP) theft and granted excessive government subsidies to a wide range of domestic industries.
The Trump administration first imposed a 25 per cent tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese products, then extended the range to US$200 billion. In retaliation, China imposed tariffs ranging from 5 to 25 per cent on various US goods, including agricultural products and vehicles.
A direct result of the phase-one trade deal has been the suspension of more tariffs on both sides. The US suspended a planned increase in tariffs on about US$162 billion on Chinese goods and lowered an existing duty on imports worth US$110 billion. China has also announced rounds of tariff exclusions that exempt American products such as pork, soybeans, liquefied natural gas and medical disinfectants.
But not long after the agreement was signed, the Covid-19 pandemic hit and reshaped the momentum of the global economy. China has fallen behind in some of the commitments it made in the agreement, sparking speculation on fresh trade tensions between the world’s largest two economies.