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After falling to 12 million in 2020, the number of newborns in China may have dropped to 10 million last year, according to a new think tank. Photo: Xinhua

China population: forget 2 or 3 kids, getting couples to have the first ‘most pressing problem’

  • With almost 100 million people, Henan province saw just 920,000 births last year – almost a quarter less than in 2019
  • Beijing has been pushing couples to have multiple children, but policy advisers warn that more must be done to reduce the cost of childbearing and parenting

With one of China’s most populous provinces saying its birth rate has plunged to a more than four-decade low, Beijing’s policy advisers are warning against the potential pitfalls of not doing enough to encourage couples to have a first child.

Henan province, the country’s third-most-populous administrative region, with 99.36 million people, has reported that its number of newborns fell to 920,000 last year – a 23.3 per cent decline from 2019 – as the birth rate dropped to 9.24 births per 1,000 people.

The birth rate and total births were at their lowest points on record since data was first made available in 1978, according to the province’s latest statistical yearbook.

The official regional readings offer fresh insight into the dwindling population growth and increasingly ageing society of the world’s second-largest economy, where births fell by 18 per cent in 2020 to just 12 million, marking a near six-decade low.
Experts have warned that a demographic turning point may be just around the corner in the world’s most populous nation, and some say it threatens to erode the foundation of China’s booming economic growth over the past 40 years while heaping pressure on Beijing’s inward-facing consumption strategy, known as dual circulation.
Beijing has already taken steps to curb the trend, such as by allowing couples to have a third child and by trying to reduce abortions for “non-medical” purposes.

Dozens of provincial and municipal authorities have also introduced their own initiatives to bump up fertility. These include giving parents more days off work, or even financial support, for having a second or third child. But such moves have been met with scepticism.

“There is such a misunderstanding about the fertility support policies in various regions, with too much focus on having a second and third child. But our most pressing problem now is that there are so few first children,” said Li Wei, director of the Population, Resources and Environment Committee, which operates under the national committee of the nation’s top advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

“[We] must have a clear understanding of the situation and make correct policy guidance,” he said, speaking at a CPPCC seminar on birth-support policies in mid-November, according to a meeting transcript released on December 31.

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China tackles challenges posed by its ageing population

China tackles challenges posed by its ageing population

At the same event, He Dan, another member of the CPPCC national committee and director of the China Population and Development Research Centre, echoed Li’s sentiment, arguing that getting married and having kids was no longer a priority for younger generations, and that the costs associated with having just one child are significant enough to determine whether parents decide to have more children.

She also said that the country should avoid indiscriminately doling out childcare subsidies, as doing so could raise the fertility rate among low-income groups but would have a limited impact on improving the lifelong fertility level among Chinese women.

Yang Wenzhuang, an official with the National Health Commission, suggested at the conference that China should enhance its nursery and childcare services. He noted that China currently has about 40 million children under three years old – a sharp decline from the official figure of more than 47 million that was released in late 2020.

The government must bear the corresponding responsibility of … reducing the cost of childbearing and parenting as much as we can
Du Gang, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security

China is set to publish its annual population data for 2021 on January 17 when authorities release the gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter of 2021 and for the full year.

The number of newborns for all of last year is expected to have fallen to about 10 million, and the nation’s total population is likely to start shrinking in the foreseeable future, according to a report published last month by the new YuWa Population Research think tank, which was established by some of the nation’s leading advocates for lifting birth restrictions.

Back in Henan, official statistics pertaining to disease screenings among newborns showed an 18.8 per cent decline in the number of newborns during the first nine months of last year.

“Many people do not regard having children as a way of contributing to … the development of society, but it does play this role,” said Du Gang, an official with the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

“So, the government must bear the corresponding responsibility of … reducing the cost of childbearing and parenting as much as we can.”

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