China’s soybean production to increase 40 per cent by 2025 amid food-security alarms

However, new soybean output target would still pale in comparison with total imports, while demand for the essential oilseed continues to increase
China imported more than 100 million tonnes of soybeans in 2020, accounting for about 60 per cent of the global soybean trade volume

China food security

Orange WangandJi Siqi

Published: 12:00am, 14 Jan 2022

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China has ambitious plans to boost domestic soybean output by 40 per cent over the next four years, as an over-reliance on imports of the commodity continues to raise alarms over the nation’s food security.

The country will bolster its oilseed self-sufficiency by increasing soybean production to 23 million tonnes by 2025, from 16.4 million tonnes in 2021, according to the 14th five-year plan on crop farming that was issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) on Thursday.

“In recent years, with the improvement of people’s living standards and the rapid development of animal farming industries, demand for soybean oil and soybean meal has increased significantly, and the gap between soybean production and demand is large and has existed for a long time,” the official document says.

But even with the sharp increase in domestic production, the 23-million-tonne target is still dwarfed by the volume of soybeans that must be imported, meaning China is far from filling the domestic supply gap.

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China imported more than 100 million tonnes of soybeans in 2020, accounting for about 85 per cent of its domestic consumption that year and about 60 per cent of the global soybean trade volume, according to official figures.

Meanwhile, the country is expected to import 102 million tonnes of soybeans from October 2021 to September – a period when domestic consumption is expected to reach 118.08 million tonnes, according to a statement by MARA’s Chinese Agriculture Outlook Committee on Wednesday.

The new five-year plan for crop farming particularly highlighted supply-chain security risks associated with the oilseed in recent years, as the protracted pandemic and geopolitical tensions have made it more difficult to ensure a steady supply, while China relies too much on only a handful of source countries.

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The plan also vowed to “promote the industrial application of [genetically modified] soybeans in an orderly manner”.

Soybeans became a hot-button issue between Beijing and Washington during the Trump-era trade war. Buying more American farm goods, including soybeans, was an important commitment made by the Chinese government in the phase-one trade deal.

“The higher the foreign dependence, the higher the uncertainty,” said a note by Hongta Securities last month.

“Especially as the United States is the largest soybean supplier to China, and the relevant trade depends on the changes in political factors and diplomatic relations. Reducing the reliance will allow China to take a proactive position in the trade negotiations.”

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During a forum at Tsinghua University on Saturday, before the new production goals were announced, China’s former deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission speculated that soybean imports would increase between now and 2035, and that the domestic supply gap could widen.

Du Ying added that China should focus on building overseas supply chains to give itself more options in sourcing soybeans. But he also warned that China should avoid purchasing or leasing land overseas to grow grains, pointing to the potential impact of “political and social sensitivities”.

The new plan says that China’s grain output could reach 700 million tonnes by 2025. Output grew by 2 per cent to a record high of 682.85 million tonnes in 2021, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in December.