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EconomyChina Economy

China’s crude oil imports set to rebound up to 7 per cent in 2022, but coronavirus to delay recovery

  • Demand recovery is not expected until the second half of the year as China continues to combat coronavirus outbreaks and limit production by smaller refiners
  • Crude oil imports look set to grow by 600,000-700,000 barrels per day, offsetting last year’s 590,000 barrels per day fall

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Robust demand from China, which accounts for a tenth of the global crude trade, would help underpin global oil prices, keeping supplies tight amid forecasts for a jump in crude prices or more. Photo: Reuters
Reuters

China’s crude oil imports could rebound by 6-7 per cent this year, reversing 2021’s rare decline as buyers step up purchases for new refining units and to replenish low inventories, analysts and oil company officials said.

Robust demand from China, which accounts for a tenth of the global crude trade, would help underpin global oil prices, keeping supplies tight amid forecasts for a jump in crude prices.

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Demand recovery, however, is not expected until the second half of the year as China continues to combat coronavirus outbreaks and limit production by smaller refiners.

For 2022, crude oil imports into China look set to grow by 600,000-700,000 barrels per day, offsetting last year’s 590,000 barrels per day fall to match or beat 2020s record volume of 10.85 million barrels per day, analysts at FGE, Rystad Energy and Energy Aspects said.

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Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures are already at seven-year highs near US$90 a barrel as investors look beyond the demand hit from the Omicron variant.

“We expect China’s refinery runs to grow by 500,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by new refinery capacity coming online in 2022 and the recovery in transport and aviation fuels picking up the pace in the second half of the year,” said Julie Torgersrud of Rystad Energy.

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Imports are likely to make a slow start initially as Beijing’s zero-tolerance virus control measures keep a lid on fuel demand, while reduced import quotas and narrowing refining margins will limit production by independent refiners.
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