China’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine unlikely to have major effect on Asia trade ties, analysts say

China’s refusal to condemn Russia should have minimal impact on its trade in Asia, some analysts in the region say

China is the Asean bloc’s largest trading partner, ahead of the United States and Europe, and economic ties are growing

4-MIN READ4-MIN

99+

Chinese President Xi Jinping last week renewed criticism of Western sanctions against Russia, as top European Union officials sought assurances from Beijing that it would not help Moscow circumvent the economic measures imposed in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Photo: AP

Published: 12:00am, 5 Apr 2022Updated: 7:51am, 5 Apr 2022

While China’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains a lightning rod for debate around the world, analysts in Asia say the region’s economic dependence on the world’s No 2 economy is too huge to crumble amid the geopolitical rifts caused by the war.

The United States and European Union (EU) have called on China to condemn Moscow’s actions and Washington has warned of consequences – including sanctions – for providing material support for Russia. At a China-EU summit last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the two economies held “clearly opposing views” on the conflict.

But closer to home, the response of many Asian countries – particularly members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) – towards the conflict has been far more restrained, meaning China’s efforts to cast itself as neutral are unlikely to significantly harm trade or diplomatic ties, analysts said.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told his Indonesian counterpart Retno Marsudi in a March phone call that Southeast Asian nations should cherish regional peace and stability and small and medium-sized countries should not be used as “tools” for big power confrontation.

China’s economic and business links with most of Asia … are too large to be affected by its stance on Russia

Amitendu Palit

“China’s economic and business links with most of Asia, particularly the Asia-Pacific, are too large to be affected by its stance on Russia. It can therefore get away by not condemning Russia,” said Amitendu Palit, senior research fellow and research lead for trade and economics at National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies.

He added there were not strong expectations among Asian nations for China to denounce Russia given the strong ties between the two nations.