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China GDP: 16 provinces insist economic growth goals are still within reach, but wary analysts wonder how

  • 16 of China’s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and major municipalities are sticking to their local GDP forecasts, even as economists stress how difficult it looks to be
  • Boosting regional economies is expected to be a key metric in evaluating the political performances of local officials ahead of the critically important 20th Party Congress

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Hundreds of coronavirus cases in China’s Hainan province have triggered lockdowns in recent days, threatening the local economy that depends heavily on tourism. Photo: AFP

Half of China’s provinces are sticking to their commitments on regional economic growth targets for this year, even as Beijing has softened its tone on achieving the broader national target.

Meanwhile, analysts are pointing out how difficult of a challenge this could be for local bureaucrats to achieve.

As bolstering economic growth has moved higher on the political agenda in the lead-up to this autumn’s once-a-decade leadership reshuffle, China’s largest economies are doing everything they can to toe the party line. This includes making greater efforts to stabilise inbound foreign investment, trade and private business for the rest of the year while also boosting infrastructure spending.

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A total of 16 of the nation’s 31 provincial-level jurisdictions, including major municipalities and autonomous regions, have vowed to ensure or strive to achieve their annual socioeconomic development targets that were set earlier this year, according to statements available on their regional websites.

Six other provincial regions said they remained mindful of their economic growth targets but did not go as far as outright saying these would be attainable.

Those statements came both before and after last month’s half-year, tone-setting meeting of the Politburo, when China’s primary decision-making body, led by President Xi Jinping, avoided any mention of the nation’s “around 5.5 per cent” economic growth target for 2022.
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