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China’s 20th Party Congress
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Xi Jinping attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, where he met with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Photo: AFP

Global Impact newsletter: Xi Jinping heads overseas for the first time in 2.5 years as historic third term looms at 20th party congress

  • Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world
  • In this edition, we look at the significance of Xi Jinping’s trip to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan coming a month before the 20th party congress in Beijing
As President Xi Jinping set foot outside China for the first time in two and a half years this week, preparations for the 20th party congress in mid-October are in their final phase.

In fact, two of the seven members of China’s all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee, Xi and legislature head Li Zhanshu, are conducting their foreign trips just four weeks before the twice-a-decade congress. Li started his 11-day trip, that also included Mongolia, Nepal and South Korea, in Russia last week, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, which is set to begin on October 16, is also arguably the party’s most important in 40 years, with Xi expected to secure a third term as general secretary, as the party ushers in a new line of leadership.

Xi will be the first person to serve as party chief for a third five-year term since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, bending the retirement norms accumulated in the following decades.

01:54

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin speak in person for first time since Russia invaded Ukraine

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin speak in person for first time since Russia invaded Ukraine
By stepping out only four weeks before the congress, Xi is displaying clear confidence in his power and status domestically after Beijing announced the date of the congress in late August, signalling the smoothness of the preparations.

The date lands right in the middle of the estimated time frame, and is almost identical to the date of the last congress in 2017.

The congress is also set to lay down a grand strategy that looks largely the same as the past 10 years, and is expected to continue a set of Xi’s signature policies, including common prosperity.
Among other issues, the congress will again amend the party’s charter. While details of the changes remain a secret closely-guarded by Beijing, Xi’s status is expected to be further lifted.
Xi’s name is already enshrined in the charter, which upholds his political theory, namely Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, in the text, as well as his signature policy, the Belt and Road Initiative.
Some 11 of his 24 colleagues within the Politburo have passed the unwritten retirement age and are expected to step down to be replaced by a group of younger political elites. While Xi remains in command, he will have a new team in almost every policy area.
The selections of those enforcers are expected to shed light on the direction of Xi’s visions for the next five years in economy, foreign policy, military and security.

Xi is not expected to appoint a successor during the congress, but all eyes are on if he’s willing to offer any clue as to when he will step down as China’s top leader, or how.

By the time the congress kicks off, Xi will have already brought home some diplomatic victories from his trip to Central Asia, where he reaffirmed close ties with Moscow and continued Beijing’s pivot to the region.

But China-US relations will still be at their lowest ebb in more than 40 years. What started as a trade war in 2018 has developed into a comprehensive competition in geopolitics, technology, military, ideology and economics.
Differences over Taiwan remain radioactive. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-ruled island in August, as well as a plan by the US Congress to pass the Taiwan Policy Act, which will designate Taiwan as a major non-Nato ally, have added to the tensions.
The Ukraine war, which has brought Washington closer to its allies, is another source of friction. When Xi met with Russian counterpart Putin on Thursday, Ukraine was in the middle of the most successful counter offence to push back Russian troops for months.
On the home front, China is facing tremendous downward economic pressure, with its economy growing by just 0.4 per cent in the second quarter – its slowest pace since the coronavirus pandemic first hit more than two years ago.

While the rest of the world has mostly reopened, China remains committed to keeping cases to a minimum, to the point that Xi has said China’s policy is decided by “the nature of the party”.

During the congress, a month after the World Health Organization said the end of the pandemic is in sight, Xi is expected to take pride in the achievements of China’s zero-Covid policy, which has been in place since 2020.

It remains unclear if he will hint at China’s plans for dealing with the coronavirus after the congress, with the lockdowns and mass testing having already brought great disruption to its supply chain, dragged down international travel to a minimum and inflicted a great amount of uncertainty on its economic growth.

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Infographic: The Politburo
Infographic: Faces to watch

Deep Dives

Is Xi Jinping’s trip overseas the beginning of the end for China’s zero-Covid policy?

  • Most of the country’s leadership has avoided travel abroad since the start of the pandemic two years ago

  • But face-to-face diplomatic activity appears to be back on the agenda

Chinese President Xi Jinping is one of the very few – if only – state leaders in the world to have avoided overseas travel in the past two years because of Covid-19.

So when Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced in mid-August that Xi and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin would attend the Group of 20 summit in Bali in November, observers were alert for signs that China would change its long-standing zero-Covid policy.

01:36

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Kazakhstan on first trip abroad since pandemic began

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Kazakhstan on first trip abroad since pandemic began

Why size matters when it comes to China’s new leadership line-up

  • The Politburo Standing Committee is the party’s top decision-making body, but there are no written rules on how many members it can have

  • Analysts say its size is unlikely to change at this year’s congress since Xi has cemented his power and reduced internal fragmentation

The Communist Party is set to hold its 20th national congress in mid-October, a gathering that will usher in a new line-up of the party’s leadership. In the second piece in a three-part series exploring the rules of the personnel reshuffle, Jane Cai looks at the conventions surrounding the Politburo Standing Committee.
At the end of the ruling Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress in October, following a leadership reshuffle, those at the very top of Chinese politics will walk down a red carpet and meet the press.

Why is retirement beckoning for 11 members of the Communist Party of China’s top decision-making body?

  • Unofficial retirement age has been 68, but President Xi Jinping, now 69, is set to remain top leader

  • Ahead of party’s national congress, attention has turned to likelihood of successor being anointed

The Communist Party is set to hold its 20th national congress in mid-October, a gathering that will usher in a new line-up of the party’s leadership. In the first piece in a three-part series exploring the rules of the personnel reshuffle, Jun Mai looks at how unofficial retirement conventions will shape the power transition.

Fading out gradually is seldom an option for top Chinese leaders.

Changing of China’s diplomatic guard on agenda for this year’s party congress

  • Foreign policy supremo Yang Jiechi expected to step down from Politburo at age of 72

  • Foreign Minister Wang Yi could step up to replace him, but age norms pose hurdle

Ahead of this year’s Communist Party congress, we explore the possible personnel changes and power structure of the areas that will have the largest impact on Beijing’s Taiwan policy. In the third part of the series, Shi Jiangtao looks at possible changes in the leadership of China’s diplomatic corps.
With cross-strait tensions skyrocketing following this month’s controversial visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, all eyes are on who will lead China’s diplomatic corps after this autumn’s party congress.

China on cusp of joining high-income club, but slowdown raises spectre of middle-income trap

  • Beijing officials trumpet dazzling economic figures to make case the country can escape middle-income trap

  • However, some inconvenient statistics point to a worrying trend for the world’s second-largest economy

Ahead of this year’s 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we take a look at how the country is responding to three potential traps highlighted by President Xi Jinping in the past decade. In the third of a three-part series, we examine the middle-income trap and the hurdles China’s economy must clear to escape it.

Chinese officials like to use numbers to describe the country’s economic miracle.

Who can fill the shoes of China’s Iron Lady Sun Chunlan on Politburo?

  • For two years she has ruled the country’s Covid-19 response with an iron fist, but at 72 the vice-premier is expected to step down at this year’s party congress

  • But with few women climbing the leadership ladder, it is uncertain if Sun’s successor will be female

The Communist Party of China will undergo a major leadership shake-up at its party congress in the second half of 2022. In this series, the South China Morning Post looks at what the party’s next generation of leaders might look like.

China has groomed many female athletes to bring home Olympics gold and trained women astronauts for its ambitious space programme, but without a similar political pathway, the ruling Communist Party may struggle to find a woman who can fill the shoes of Sun Chunlan.

China’s party congress promotions to emphasise political security

  • Appointments are expected to sharpen focus on potential threats to the state and draw a line under the corruption scandals of recent years

  • The front runners for the key political and legal roles have all served under the Chinese leader from the beginning of his rise to power

President Xi Jinping is expected to consolidate his reshaping of China’s national security apparatus at the 20th party congress in the autumn, to rebuild the battered reputation of a sector that has been plagued with corruption scandals.

Under Xi’s leadership, Beijing has significantly sharpened and reshaped the country’s zhengfa departments, the political and legal organs that form its security mechanisms.

‘Economic tsar’ Liu He has President Xi’s full trust, but who can fill in when Liu retires?

  • Short- and long-term economic challenges are testing China, putting added pressure on its top economic adviser

  • Vice-Premier Liu He is Xi Jinping’s right-hand man for economic affairs, but some analysts say any potential replacement might not have as much personal authority

Dazzling economic figures used to be the best decorations for China’s five-yearly Communist Party leadership reshuffle, showcasing solidarity and development, but the upcoming 20th party congress will probably have to do without such adornments.
Following economic growth of just 0.4 per cent in the second quarter of the year, third-quarter growth is set to be much weaker in 2022 than in decades past – the 14.6 per cent quarterly rise seen in 1992, the 9.6 per cent in the same period in 2002, and the 7.5 per cent quarterly growth before Xi Jinping became party general secretary a decade ago.

Changing of the guard? China’s military may get a new leadership line-up

  • Four of seven members on the Central Military Commission are at or have passed the retirement age and could step down at the upcoming party congress

  • Analysts say Xi Jinping, who heads the CMC, has done the groundwork and is likely to be looking for combat experience and loyalty when making his picks

Ahead of this year’s Communist Party congress, we explore the possible personnel changes and power structure of the areas that will have the largest impact on Beijing’s Taiwan policy. In the second part of the series, Jack Lau looks at possible changes to China’s top military brass.
China’s military, the world’s largest standing armed forces, could be at its most critical moment after 40 years of relative peace.
Understand China’s leadership reshuffle with Global Impact newsletter. View all 20th party congress issues here.

Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.

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