New China GDP estimate downgrades 2022’s economic growth to 3 per cent as global recession concerns mount

Zero-Covid policy, property sector downturn and external factors continue to cast a pall over China’s economy, the Peterson Institute for International Economics says

Global economy is at risk of a ‘massive setback’, IMF chief warns as a fourth downgrade is expected next week

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International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that the IMF will lower its global economic growth forecast next week. Photo: AP

Published: 8:00pm, 7 Oct 2022

China’s economy may grow by just 3 per cent this year as global recession concerns mount, according to the latest estimates on global economic prospects by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).

It marks a sharp downgraded from the think tank’s April forecast of 4.7 per cent, and it is the latest in a series of increasingly pessimistic economic forecasts for the growth of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year.

Last year, China’s economy grew by 8.1 per cent, but that was compared with the first year of the pandemic, when its GDP grew by just 2.2 per cent in 2020.

In March, China struck a cautious note in projecting that GDP would grow by “around 5.5 per cent” this year. But less than three months later, Beijing said its growth target would “fall far short” of that estimate.

In once again revising down its forecast, PIIE pointed to China’s continued grappling with coronavirus shutdowns under its zero-Covid policy, its real estate slump and persistent disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.