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Closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. Photo: Kyodo

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Global Impact: Now the dust has settled after the 20th party congress, where is China heading under Xi Jinping?

Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world
In this edition, we look back at the 20th party congress in Beijing and ponder what it all means for the next five years (and maybe more) for China

China’s 20th Party Congress

Daniel Kwan

Published: 2:00pm, 31 Oct 2022

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The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party ended last Saturday with the election of a new Central Committee and amendments of the party constitution.

Then, on the following day, President Xi Jinping further cemented his paramount leader status with a third term as the general secretary, while also confirming a new line-up for the Politburo and its powerful Standing Committee.

The results were largely as expected as some of the familiar faces like Premier Li Keqiang and parliamentary chief Li Zhanshu are set to retire.

At the same time, Xi has populated the leadership core with his trusted aides and some up-and-coming new faces. The absence of any heir apparent in the new line-up also indicates that Xi will continue to rule China for another five years and maybe beyond.

The new leadership is not just younger, but it also boasts a more professional make-up. Within the Politburo, at least half-a-dozen members share a background in science and technology. There is also a public health expert and a top industrialist with decades of management experience.

The retention of Foreign Minister Wang Yi and military strongman Zhang Youxia despite their advanced age, however, indicate that Xi also values continuity and keeping a steady-hand in these two critical areas. There was, however, for the first time in decades, no woman selected for the Politburo.

Meanwhile, the congress also sent plenty of signals and messages about where Xi is going to lead the party and the country. On different occasions, Xi has made it clear that the congress marked the beginning of a new era, which will eventually see China become a modernised and prosperous world power in around three decades.

To achieve that, Xi stated that upholding the Communist Party’s leadership is crucial – a message that he again drove home during a visit with the newly-minted Politburo Standing Committee members to the party’s mecca of Yanan on Thursday.

02:03

China’s 20th party congress concludes with bigger than expected leadership reshuffle

The congress was only marred by an unscripted event on its closing day when former president Hu Jintao was escorted out of the meeting soon after it began. While the episode has attracted much attention overseas, it was not reported in domestic media.

More personnel changes are expected to be announced between now and the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in March. Some of these changes are expected and others will be surprises. However, one thing can be certain – they are all the president’s men.

60 second catch-up

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Deep Dives

On track or off? US analysts say 20th party congress suggests difficult bilateral relations ahead

New military leadership looks solid, but appointees to domestic positions seem more experienced in party ideology than in economics, which could destabilise ties

‘Looking into the future, it is uncertainty as far as the eye can see,’ one analyst says

While there has been little official US comment on the 20th party congress that saw President Xi Jinping gain an unprecedented third term, former US officials and analysts say Beijing’s apparent lack of attention to mounting economic problems and its hardening political and military line do not bode well for US-China ties.

The twice-in-a-decade Communist Party meetings are generally reserved for handling succession issues and outlining broad vision. But China is facing a property crisis, consumer slump tied to its zero-Covid policy, weakening currency, capital outflow and historically low growth rates even as youth unemployment hit a record high of 19.3 per cent in June.

The Hong Kong connection: Xi Jinping, 4 other top Chinese leaders and an ideologue who studied city from afar

New hierarchy of seven-member Politburo Standing Committee could lead to smoother implementation of key policies involving Hong Kong, analysts say

Pro-Beijing heavyweight says new team gives Hong Kong ‘quite a lot opportunities to be involved in the overall development of China’

China’s new top decision-making body unveiled over the weekend comprises an unprecedented number of leaders with extensive links to Hong Kong in their previous roles and an ideologue who had long studied the city, making for a line-up analysts have suggested can lead to a smoother implementation of Beijing’s key policies related to Hong Kong.

Pro-Beijing heavyweight Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai also said the new team would be “an asset” for Hong Kong as it could guide the city through an increasingly tense geopolitical environment and help it to further integrate with the country’s overall development.

China’s top legislature ‘deliberates’ on new nominations, as leadership reshuffle stokes market turmoil

The National People’s Congress (NPC) standing committee, which convened a meeting from Wednesday to Sunday, may have begun political appointments

The NPC’s early approval of vice premiers could include those responsible for the economy, pandemic control, science and technology as well as foreign trade

Following days of market turmoil, all eyes are on the appointment of China’s top economic aides, who will be responsible for guiding the country through coming economic storms and continuing Xi Jinping’s grand modernisation strategy.

While Li Qiang, now China’s No 2 in the party hierarchy, will take the premiership in March, the naming of senior government roles might have already begun, enabling appointees to get to grips with economic challenges, plan policy priorities and ensure a seamless transition.

China’s Communist Party cements ‘common prosperity’ as core economic agenda

Constitutional revisions also call for acceleration of the ‘dual circulation’ concept

Decision comes as structural problems mount at home and headwinds gain strength abroad

China’s Communist Party has cemented “security” and “common prosperity” as high priorities on its economic agenda by adding the “dual circulation” strategy and pursuit of “high-quality development” to the party constitution.

The revisions came amid fierce debate about whether Beijing is leaning towards a more inward course and prepared to sacrifice some growth to counteract widening socioeconomic inequality as structural problems mount at home and headwinds gain strength abroad.

China’s Communist Party looks to science cadres to push back at US tech squeeze

More scientists added to the top ranks of the party and military command

Expertise ranges from rocket science to nuclear power and the environment

More leaders with a strong science and technology background have been promoted to the upper echelon of the Communist Party as President Xi Jinping seeks to counter pressure from the West.

The emphasis on science and technology was evident not only in the new line-up of the powerful Politburo announced on Sunday but also in the newly elected policymaking Central Committee.

Was Beijing’s praise of ‘noble’ party and state leaders a nod to Li Keqiang?

A state media report didn’t name names when it recognised leaders who ‘voluntarily’ asked to retire

President Xi Jinping used similar accolades for previous high-level retirements

Chinese state media has praised “some party and state leaders” for voluntarily stepping down to make way for younger talent – a likely reference to the retirement of China’s premier, Li Keqiang, among others.

Without directly naming anyone, a report on Monday from state news agency Xinhua said the leaders voluntarily asked for retirement during the consultation period for the new Communist Party leadership ahead of the 20th party congress.

Understand China’s leadership reshuffle with Global Impact newsletter. View all 20th party congress issues here.

Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.