China population: new births to fall to a third of India’s by 2050 without ‘powerful fertility support’
- As China’s workforce continues to shrink, labour costs will keep rising and some manufacturing industries will look to offshore, demographers say
- By 2050, the median age in China will be 50, while it will be 42.3 years old in the United States and 37.5 in India, says YuWa Population Research Institute
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Chinese reluctant to have children as China reports first population fall in 61 years
Without effective fertility support policies, newborns in China will fall to one third of India by 2050 and drop to a quarter by the end of the century, demographers say, amid concerns about far-reaching economic implications and disappearing labour dividends for the world’s No 2 economy.
“Looking at the long-term trends, due to the low fertility rate and the continuous decline in the number of women of childbearing age, the number of new births will remain in a period of rapid decline,” said Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute in a report on Thursday.
“By 2050, if substantial and powerful fertility support measures are not taken, the number of new births in China will drop to 7.73 million, a third of India’s, and it will plunge to 3.06 million in 2100, only a quarter of India’s.”
Last year, China’s birth rate fell to a record low of 6.77 per 1,000 people, with the total number of newborns falling to 9.56 million – the nation’s lowest total in modern history and the first time the figure has dipped below 10 million, government data confirmed on Tuesday.