China’s exports in 2023 weighed down by ‘very weak’ outlook, analysts say
- The second half of the year could bring a pickup in demand for China, including a recovery in semiconductor output
- But analysts say dwindling global demand amid sustained inflation looks to persist throughout 2023, and trade growth will remain mild
China’s export growth percentage is estimated to remain in the “low single digits” this year, with the possibility of a pickup in the second half, according to an outlook by Goldman Sachs that comes amid supply-chain disruptions and sluggish global demand.
Andrew Tilton, chief Asia economist at the American investment bank, said on Tuesday that the global economy is “still rotating back to services to some extent”, rather than trade.
“That’s a relatively soft outlook from China’s perspective. Right now it’s very weak,” he said at a media briefing in Hong Kong. “In the electronics and tech areas, people bought a lot of that kind of equipment during the pandemic, and so you have a sort of overhang.”
But Tilton expects there will be a pickup in demand for products, including smartphones, in the second half of the year, and he said this should aid in the recovery of the semiconductor supply chain.