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China 2023 GDP: why Beijing set a moderate target, and what it signifies for economic growth

  • After falling far short of its GDP target last year, Beijing is being a bit more reserved in 2023, and analysts say this reflects the need to cultivate better-quality growth long-term
  • ‘Domestic and international challenges’ are forcing a number of reforms, and economic stability remains of paramount importance

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02:52

China's 'two sessions': Premier Li Keqiang emphasises achievements, economy in final work report

China's 'two sessions': Premier Li Keqiang emphasises achievements, economy in final work report
Frank Tangin Beijing

In gauging how China’s economy will fare this year, Beijing has set a relatively moderate growth target that will allow for more leeway to focus on resolving long-term challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy, according to analysts.

They point to a number of stubborn issues facing China’s incoming economic leadership, including weak confidence in the private sector, curtailed household consumption, technological bottlenecks and the need to plan to counter long-term obstacles.

The world’s second-largest economy aims to boost its gross domestic product (GDP) by around 5 per cent this year, outgoing Premier Li Keqiang told about 3,000 parliamentary deputies at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sunday.

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The target came at the lower end of market expectations. But it marked a rise from last year’s actual growth of 3 per cent, which followed Beijing’s prediction one year ago that GDP would rise by “around 5.5 per cent” in 2022.

The “around 5 per cent” expectation for 2023 is above the average of 4.5 per cent growth in the past three years. It is also above the 4.8 per cent average growth rate needed to fulfil China’s aspirations of becoming a moderately prosperous nation over the next 13 years.

02:03

China targets to boost gross domestic product by ‘around 5%’ in 2023

China targets to boost gross domestic product by ‘around 5%’ in 2023

“[The 2023 GDP goal] is not overly optimistic and does not spend too much on boosting growth. It focuses more on longer-term growth challenges,” said Iris Pang, ING Bank’s chief Greater China economist.

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