Taiwan trade in spotlight as mainland China fires timely warning ahead of election with barriers probe

Mainland China launched a ‘trade barrier investigation’ into Taiwan’s restrictive measures against 2,455 products in April

The probe could be concluded by mid-October, but could be extended until the day before the vote to elect Tsai Ing-wen’s successor is due to take place

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China’s Ministry of Commerce last month announced it had launched a “trade barrier investigation” into Taiwan’s restrictive measures against 2,455 mainland products. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Published: 6:00am, 3 May 2023Updated: 4:05pm, 19 May 2023

Taiwanese voters will head to the polls in January in what is seen as a crucial election for both the self-ruled island and US-China relations. In this, the third in a three-part series about the 2024 election race, the Post looks at the potential impact of an investigation by mainland China into Taiwanese trade curbs.

Beijing’s carefully-timed investigation into Taiwanese “trade barriers” that allegedly affect the import of over 2,400 mainland Chinese goods, that could end on the eve of the self-ruled island’s presidential election at the start of next year, is set to put its economic dependence to the test.

The “trade barrier investigation”, rare in its scale as it covers 2,455 agriculture, mineral and textile products that have been banned by Taiwan for decades, may lead to economic sanctions, or even worse, a cancellation of the 13-year-old Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), analysts added.

It could also hinder Taiwan’s dependence on the mainland, analysts said, as it has long been its biggest trade partner and export market.

The trade relationship was not exactly a ‘normal’ one before, because the mainland has let Taiwan enjoy a favourable position in the relationship to extend its ‘special care’

Zhu Songling

“The trade relationship was not exactly a ‘normal’ one before, because the mainland has let Taiwan enjoy a favourable position in the relationship to extend its ‘special care’,” Zhu Songling, a Taiwan affairs specialist at Beijing Union University.

Mainland China’s Ministry of Commerce announced details of the investigation last month, hours after the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had confirmed current vice-president Lai Ching-te as its 2024 presidential candidate, with incumbent Tsai Ing-wen set to conclude her second and final term in May.

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