China food security: critical grain harvest sees first summer drop in 5 years, autumn dip may follow

Unless China can sow some luck this autumn and avoid inclement weather such as extreme heat and excessive rain, annual grain output will likely fall short of goals

Dramatic weather changes could force China to consider alternative approaches to shoring up nation’s food security – some suggest breeding more resistant crops with genetics

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A farmer harvests wheat on Saturday in China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 9:00am, 18 Jul 2023

China’s grain output for the year is not looking good, as the summer yield is down and more extreme weather looms, analysts warn.

Particularly worrisome is that the autumn harvest, which accounts for 75 per cent of China’s whole-year grain production, as they say it is at risk of being lighter due to adverse weather – the primary factor blamed for the first decline in China’s summer harvest since 2018.

The country has already faced rarely seen bouts of bad weather this summer, and the subsequently higher risks including drought, flooding and less plant growth, said Huo Xuexi, a professor of agricultural economics from Northwest A&F University.

“I’m afraid that maintaining grain production this year at last year’s level would be difficult, given the risks of climatic damage projected by domestic and international meteorologists,” he said.

Despite increasing efforts to guarantee food self-sufficiency, China has seen a 0.9 per cent drop in summer grain output mainly due to prolonged rain that battered mature wheat in its top-growing province of Henan right before the harvest, the National Bureau of Statistics said at the weekend.

As of last year, China’s annual grain output had remained above 650 million tonnes for eight consecutive years amid its strong emphasis on food security in the face of global uncertainties. Beijing aims to at least maintain this level and raise it to 700 million tonnes by 2025, according to the central government’s five-year plan for agriculture released last year.

But already this summer, China has recorded the most days with temperatures at 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) or above since at least 1961, the National Climate Centre said in a WeChat post earlier this month.