China population: annual births expected to hover around 10 million as nation ages
- Government researcher makes estimate in health commission’s official magazine
- Steady birth rate to accompany accelerated ageing of population, growing demand for more and better elderly care
The annual number of newborns in China will stabilise at around 10 million while the population’s ageing accelerates, a senior researcher and government adviser has said. With more than 70 million estimated to be 80 years or older by 2035, demand for policy support in public services is expected to grow concurrently.
“The declining birth rate and ageing population will accompany the entire process of China’s socialist modernisation development,” said He Dan, director of the China Population And Development Research Centre, a think tank affiliated with the National Health Commission.
The size of the newborn population in China is expected to fluctuate but will remain at around 10 million for the foreseeable future, she said in an article published in the latest issue of the commission’s Population and Health magazine.
In the meantime, the ageing of China’s population is also set to hasten. By 2035, the country’s average life expectancy is estimated to be more than 80 years old, up from 78.2 in 2021, He said.
At that time, the total population aged 80 and over will have reached 70 million, and is projected to double to more than 140 million in 2050, requiring more and higher-quality elderly care, she added.
Last year, China’s population declined for the first time in six decades as deaths outnumbered births and its overall population plummeted by 850,000 – 1.4118 billion in 2022, down from 1.4126 billion a year earlier.