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President Xi Jinping delivers a speech at the annual central economic work conference in Beijing. Photo: Xinhua

China’s development biggest political priority at key economic meeting as leaders vow to counter risks, lift confidence in 2024

  • Beijing’s two-day central economic work conference ended with a clear message that leaders are keen on injecting life into the nation’s struggling economy
  • Many of the leadership’s decisions made behind closed doors – including China’s economic growth goal for next year – will remain under wraps until March

China’s development is its biggest political priority, Beijing said after its just-concluded annual tone-setting economic conference, signalling what could be a strong tilt towards economic growth in 2024.

And to that end, leadership pledged to orchestrate a variety of pro-growth policies and ramp up their coordination, including that of non-economic departments, to deliver much-needed economic stability in a time of considerable uncertainties and headwinds.

“We must centre on economic construction and high-quality development, turning Chinese-style modernisation blueprints into reality,” a statement said after the two-day central economic work conference that concluded on Tuesday, according to party mouthpiece Xinhua.

The meeting took place as Beijing stands at a critical juncture in its efforts to consolidate the nation’s economic recovery, revive business confidence and bolster new sectors, including the digital economy, to power economic growth over the long run.

[Beijing] needs to create an internal impetus for the economy through greater reforms and opening up
Ding Shuang, Standard Chartered Bank

China is trying to stay on a path toward doubling its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035, relative to 2020 levels – meaning the economy must grow by at least 4.8 per cent annually.

“We will unveil more policies that are able to stabilise expectations, growth and jobs,” the readout said.

A number of government advisers and economists have said they expect Beijing to announce a 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5 per cent” – the same as the target set for 2023 – on the condition of more expansionary policies.

Leadership has acknowledged that insufficient demand, overcapacity in some industries, and weak expectations were major risks hampering growth.

They vowed to maintain policy continuity – including an expansionary fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy – to prop up the economy and encourage foreign investors to come to China at a time when some multinationals and business groups say the country has lost some of its shine.

“Beijing realises that it cannot rely solely on strong stimulus policies to boost social expectations. It needs to create an internal impetus for the economy through greater reforms and opening up,” said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

There are obstacles in domestic circulation, and uncertainties in the external environment have increased, the statement said.

02:39

China’s economy sees a resurgence in the third quarter, beating forecasts

China’s economy sees a resurgence in the third quarter, beating forecasts

To enhance consistency in macroeconomic policies, Beijing will incorporate non-economic policies into the overall consistency assessment.

“It is necessary to strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology, environmental protection and other policies,” the statement said, adding that China must “strengthen economic publicity, guide public opinion, and play up the bright prospects of China’s economy”.

And in their latest attempt to address concerns among foreign investors, policymakers vowed to expand market access to the telecoms and medical-care sectors, and address issues related to cross-border data flow and government-procurement practices.

China’s economy has struggled to find its footing in the past year, after loosening pandemic restrictions that had suppressed economic growth. A worsening property sector continues to be the biggest drag, despite Beijing’s best efforts.

Other challenges for the upcoming year include getting people to spend money again, weak external demand and simmering geopolitical tensions, according to economists.

During the two-day meeting, authorities prioritised tech innovation, with an emphasis on upgrading traditional industries and improving the resiliency and security of key manufacturing chains.

“It is necessary to promote industrial innovation through scientific and technological innovation, especially subversive and cutting-edge technologies, to spawn new industries, new models and new momentum,” the statement said.

In particular, they identified the digital economy, artificial intelligence and strategic sectors such as biomedical manufacturing and commercial space aviation as new avenues to a brighter industrial future in China.
The statement also mentioned “establishing the new before abolishing the old”, which was similarly discussed at a Politburo meeting on Friday, suggesting bigger steps would be taken to stabilise the ailing property market.

Beijing also vowed to enhance food security, with agricultural improvements.

And leadership pledged to tackle areas that impede foreigners’ access to China for business, study or travel, after a recent move to implement unilateral visa-free policies to six countries.

“It takes many departments to tear down barriers to easier entries for foreigners, and it remains to be seen if non-economy departments will be quick to implement and work in tandem with economic departments,” said Alex Ma, a professor of public administration at Peking University.

Beijing has also acknowledged that issues involving coordination between several government departments may also be affecting the economy’s performance, Ma noted.

“We will see more top-down coordination,” Ma said.

The annual meeting often sets an economic growth target for the coming year, but that number is likely to remain known only to party elites before they solicit views among advisers and economists.

The GDP target, together with the fiscal deficit ratio, local bond quota and unemployment control target, will be officially released and then approved at the annual gathering of the National People’s Congress in March.

“Next year, China will rely more on the financial strength of the central government, as the current local debt problem is severe, and local government finances are tight,” said Ding at Standard Chartered Bank.

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