China advised to remain open, engaged as year of tension appears inevitable

Name: Vice-President William Lai wins Taiwan presidential election as his party loses legislature majority
Uploaded: 2024-01-15T13:00:29.000Z
Duration: 4 min 31 s
Description: Vice-President William Lai wins Taiwan presidential election as his party loses legislature majority

As heightened tensions seem set to continue through 2024, analysts have encouraged China to rely on openness and engagement to weather strained ties

Trade agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership should be emphasised, they said, in face of challenges from US and others

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With several turbulent periods ahead, Beijing has been advised to remain open and engaged with the world to counter rising tensions. Photo: Elson Li

Kandy Wong

Published: 9:00pm, 15 Jan 2024

With 2024 shaping up to be a challenging year centred around major elections, China analysts have foreseen further tensions with the United States and are calling for Beijing to counteract this trend by staying open to the world and cementing regional networks to build a solid economy.

The Taiwan election on Saturday – which saw William Lai Ching-te of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party elected president of the island for the next four years – and the US presidential election in November are set to reflect a thornier set of circumstances that will need to be handled carefully by Beijing, they said.

Their warning came as some US legislators have floated more openly confrontational measures. Oklahoma Republican Frank Lucas put forward a proposal on Friday to exclude mainland China from banking organisations if the US president notifies Congress of threats to Taiwan, while California Republican Young Kim sponsored a bill supporting Taiwan’s membership in the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

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Vice-President William Lai wins Taiwan presidential election as his party loses legislature majority

Dong Jinyue, a senior economist at BBVA Research, said the mainland should use trade and infrastructure agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Belt and Road Initiative to ensure an economic soft landing and manage financial risks to attract more foreign direct investment.

“[Mainland China can] provide favourable policies to foreign investors, enhance intellectual property rights protection, and [guarantee] equal treatment between foreign firms and local firms,” she added.

As the geopolitical situation progresses, she noted that the US will continue practices such as nearshoring with Latin American countries, subsidising hi-tech factories in the US and allying with Europe and countries in the Five Eyes intelligence network, as well as attempting to move the global value chain outside the mainland.

[We can] cooperate with the world … enlarge collaborations with the European Union … work with US hi-tech firms, particularly the multinationals

He Weiwen, Centre for China and Globalisation

He Weiwen, a senior fellow with the Beijing-based think tank Centre for China and Globalisation, said it would be impossible for Taiwan to join the IMF but suggested the mainland “consistently work on innovation and develop hi-tech on its own.”