China population: experts say birth-boosting policies should go deeper to build baby bump

After two consecutive years of population drops, debate rages over the right measures to mitigate China’s looming demographic decline

Experts disagree on impact policies can have, but general consensus has emerged for a holistic, carefully studied approach

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China has enacted policies to arrest its sagging population figures and boost fertility rates, but few appear to have had the desired effect. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 6:06pm, 23 Feb 2024Updated: 7:28pm, 23 Feb 2024

Though Beijing should provide more financial support for families to boost births, experts said, it will take more extensive measures to prevent the country’s falling population figures from jeopardising national economic growth and social cohesion.

Debate has swirled over the effectiveness of present pro-fertility policies, and calls for heavier subsidies have earned renewed attention ahead of the “two sessions” legislative meetings scheduled for early next month.

Delegates at this year’s edition are likely to discuss the major problems facing the world’s second-largest economy, including demographic trends that have become objects of deep concern.

The country’s population dropped for a second year in a row in 2023, down to 1.4097 after a 2.08-million-person decline. In the same year, only 9.02 million births were reported – the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1949.

Despite an array of pronatalist initiatives, most observers agree China’s low births are the result of a cocktail of social and economic factors defying any one quick fix, and if left unresolved will continue to dim China’s already cloudy economic outlook.

But some analysts have made more upbeat estimates.

Birth rates can be raised by 20 per cent – two million more babies a year – if the government gives preferential tax treatment and monthly cash subsidies to families, according to a new report by the YuWa Population Research Institute.

The institute estimated the increase could be achieved by paying 1,000 yuan (US$139) per child in families with two children and 2,000 yuan per child for families with three or more.