China’s exports could go from economic asset to liability as trade tensions multiply, analysts say

Name: US proposes new round of tariffs on China in latest trade war escalation
Uploaded: 2024-06-20T01:00:07.000Z
Duration: 1 min 52 s
Description: US proposes new round of tariffs on China in latest trade war escalation

As the EU and US ready new tariffs on Chinese goods, analysts have suggested a careful approach to exports at a recent forum in Beijing

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China’s exports may not be as reliable a source of growth, analysts said, as trade tensions mount with the West. Photo: Xinhua

Amanda Lee

Published: 9:00am, 20 Jun 2024Updated: 9:09am, 20 Jun 2024

China’s reliance on exports presents a potential pitfall for economic growth this year as uncertainties multiply over trade conflicts with the US and Europe, analysts said at a forum held at Renmin University of China in Beijing on Wednesday.

Gross domestic product growth of 5.3 per cent was reported in the first quarter – beating expectations – but data from May revealed some lingering jitters. Exports and new energy investment were bright spots for the world’s second-largest economy last month, with consumption and the property market remaining weak links.

China’s exports rose by 7.6 per cent from a year earlier to US$302.4 billion in May, the highest monthly export value since September.

“Dependence on external demand poses a risk to economic growth in the second half of the year,” said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank and a speaker at the forum.

Shan Hui, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, estimated that 2.4 percentage points of the country’s first-quarter GDP growth came from exports. “In other words,” she said, “if there hadn’t been outstanding performance on the export side, the contribution of domestic demand was just three percentage points.”

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US proposes new round of tariffs on China in latest trade war escalation

Analysts at the forum said that China needs to be prepared for unpredictability in its growth outlook, thanks to trade tensions with the US and Europe that may intensify in the coming months.

China’s exports could go from economic asset to liability as trade tensions multiply, analysts say

.css-1mniedq{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;}As the EU and US ready new tariffs on Chinese goods, analysts have suggested a careful approach to exports at a recent forum in Beijing

As the EU and US ready new tariffs on Chinese goods, analysts have suggested a careful approach to exports at a recent forum in Beijing