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Explainer | China’s third plenum: the 5 burning questions heating up debate – and our take
- Before China’s hotly anticipated third plenum, several questions have emerged over what economic changes may be on the agenda – here are our thoughts
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China has – after some delay – scheduled the much-anticipated third plenum of its Communist Party’s Central Committee for Monday, with the four-day meeting expected to shape the country’s economic strategy for the next five to 10 years.
Previous third plenums unveiled landmark changes. At the plenum of 1978, the policy of reform and opening up was adopted. In 1993, China’s status as a “socialist market economy” was formalised, and the 2013 plenum codified the market’s “decisive role” in resource allocation.
Below are five questions being asked by many in advance of the third plenum – and our thoughts on the answers.
1. Will China announce a massive stimulus?
The facts: At the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions – or “Summer Davos” – in late June, Premier Li Qiang said in the aftermath of Covid-19 that China’s economy, like a patient coming out of illness, needs to gradually recover and return to normalcy.
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Our take: An announcement of an imminent stimulus is most unlikely, in our view.
Historically, the third plenum has resulted in comprehensive reforms that lay out China’s economic road map for decades to come, rather than address near-term issues.
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China’s third plenum: what to expect from the much-delayed policy meeting
China’s third plenum: what to expect from the much-delayed policy meeting
Chinese officials have also said many times they have no intention to “flood the economy” with a stimulus.
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