Hollywood faces defining moment in China as Disney prepares new releases

Reports of Hollywood’s demise in China have been greatly exaggerated. Two weeks after Beijing announced plans to reduce imports of US films amid the trade war, a string of major American productions are set for nationwide releases. Marvel’s Thunderbolts* is expected to hit Chinese cinemas in time for next week’s Labour Day holiday, with Disney’s highly anticipated live-action remake of Lilo & Stitch slated to premiere in the country soon after, on May 23. The releases suggest that China is holding off on a potential Hollywood curb for now, as Beijing and Washington avoid any further escalation of an unprecedented trade war that has seen both sides raise tariffs on each other’s goods by more than 120 percentage points, industry insiders said. But the US film industry still faces plenty of problems in a market where its magic has been fading for years. Hollywood has seen its revenues in China plummet since its pre-pandemic heyday, as Chinese audiences turn away from American content in favour of domestically made films that have rapidly closed the gap in terms of production quality. China’s film industry has bounced back strongly in 2025 amid a government push to boost consumer spending. Box office revenues for the year to date stood at 25.5 billion yuan (US$3.5 billion) as of Tuesday, which is equivalent to 60 per cent of the total for the whole of last year, according to box office tracker Maoyan Pro. The recovery, however, has mostly been driven by domestic films such as smash-hit animation Ne Zha 2, while Hollywood releases like Captain America: Brave New World and Snow White have underperformed. The market share of foreign films in China has fallen steeply since the Covid-19 pandemic, with overseas productions accounting for only 21.3 per cent of China’s box office last year compared with more than 35 per cent in 2019, according to Maoyan. Hollywood has failed to produce a single hit that grossed more than 1 billion yuan in China for two consecutive years, and its total box office earnings in the country have plunged from 21.04 billion yuan in 2018 to just 5.81 billion in 2024. Given Hollywood’s declining influence, Beijing’s announcement of a reduction in US film imports is “more about showing an attitude” than a move that is likely to make a real impact on any future trade negotiations with the United States, analysts said. “I don’t see the necessity for a significant cut in the number of Hollywood movies, and I don’t think doing so would change the trade relations between China and the United States,” said Zhou Mi, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a think tank affiliated with China’s Ministry of Commerce. Yu Yusan, who has a decade’s experience working in Chinese cinemas and distribution companies, said the curb may not work well as a retaliatory measure against the administration of US President Donald Trump because Hollywood was known as a stronghold of anti-Trump sentiment. However, if China does impose tighter restrictions on American movies, it could open up more opportunities for films from other countries to enter the world’s second-largest film market, analysts said. Japanese films, in particular, may gain a larger market share in the context of reduced imports from Hollywood Lu Peng, Chinese film scholar Despite losing ground to domestic titles, Hollywood movies are still by far the most popular imported films in China, accounting for 60 per cent of total box office revenue generated by foreign productions in 2024, figures from Maoyan showed. The China Film Administration stressed in its recent announcement that while it planned to introduce fewer American films, it would import more from other nations by “following market trends and respecting audience preferences”. Chinese authorities are also looking to the film market to help boost domestic consumption, as Beijing strives to stabilise the economy amid a period of global turbulence. Last week, the administration launched the “China Film Consumption Year” campaign, with major state-owned financial institutions and key ticketing platforms committing to invest at least 1 billion yuan in subsidising film tickets to help convince consumers to open their wallets. Lu Peng, a film scholar at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, predicted that China would focus on importing more films from countries with cultural similarities, such as Japan, Thailand and India. “While Hollywood films remain difficult to surpass in terms of commercial success and production quality, Japanese films, in particular, may gain a larger market share in the context of reduced imports” from the US, he said. European films, which have historically underperformed in the Chinese market, may also benefit. Earlier this month, China and Spain signed a memorandum of understanding to expand cooperation on film festivals, exchanges and co-productions, Xinhua reported. But domestic films are likely to continue their dominance at the box office, according to Lu, as the increasing industrialisation and specialisation of China’s film industry has led to a string of record-breaking releases, including Ne Zha 2.

Hollywood faces defining moment in China as Disney prepares new releases

Beijing appears to be holding off on a drastic curb of American film imports – for now, at least – as US-China tensions simmer, analysts said