Trump’s trade war starts to bite as China’s cargo shipments slump
US tariffs are beginning to take a toll – but some analysts believe Beijing could still achieve 5 per cent GDP target
Weekly container bookings from China to the United States in the week of April 21 have plummeted 48.6 per cent year on year to 90,831 TEU, according to latest data from supply chain intelligence firm Vizion, which marks a slight improvement from the previous low of 81,239 after slumping for three consecutive weeks.
The decline “highlights the severity of the market’s reaction to the April 4 and April 5 tariff announcements, as shippers paused new movements mid-cycle to reassess cost, routing, and inventory risk”, the company noted last week.
The trend was echoed across other major metrics. According to PortWatch, a joint initiative by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the University of Oxford, export cargo volumes from China fell by 10 per cent in the first 25 days of April. That stands in sharp contrast to the 4 per cent increase recorded in March.
Shipping costs have also taken a hit. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), a widely watched gauge of export shipping prices, has dropped by 26 per cent so far this year.
Ocean carriers have also pulled back capacity on the Transpacific Eastbound trade route at a pace not seen since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, in anticipation of falling demand due to new US tariffs on Chinese shipments.