China’s strong GDP figures stoke debate over stimulus as US tariff risks loom
China’s economy beat market forecasts to grow 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, but analysts said headwinds would intensify in late 2025
China’s economy expanded by 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, keeping it broadly on track to meet this year’s growth target, but analysts cautioned that weak domestic demand and rising external uncertainties could provoke a slowdown in the second half of 2025.
The closely watched gross domestic product (GDP) figures, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday, came in above the 5.17 per cent forecast by a poll of economists from the Chinese financial data provider Wind.
The second-quarter growth – which marked a slight deceleration from the 5.4 per cent expansion recorded in the first three months of 2025 – brought China’s first-half growth to 5.3 per cent, according to the NBS.
The robust headline figures suggest that China’s economy has remained resilient in the face of an ongoing trade war with the United States, with Chinese goods still facing an effective US tariff rate of more than 40 per cent, according to Morgan Stanley estimates.