Why China’s 5-year plan matters – and how it could steer economy in turbulent times

As China drafts its 15th five-year plan – the next entry in a line of expansive blueprints that have set the tone for the country’s development over more than seven decades – we examine how these documents inform and reflect high-level policy priorities, what to expect in the coming iteration and why Beijing has continued this tradition after the seismic economic changes of the reform era.

“Plans can’t keep up with changes,” the Chinese proverb goes. Yet for more than seven decades, China has relied on successive five-year plans to chart its course, making it one of the few nations steadfastly committed to long-term planning – a strategic approach President Xi Jinping calls a “unique political advantage”.

At a time of rising global uncertainty, attention has now shifted to Beijing’s policy priorities over the next half-decade as officials begin drafting the 15th five-year plan covering the period from 2026 to 2030. The latest blueprint is set to be discussed at the Communist Party’s fourth plenary session in October.

The party has pledged to achieve a per capita gross domestic product at the level of a “moderately” developed country by 2035 – more than doubling the current level of about US$13,000. Should that be achieved, it would lay the groundwork for the “centenary goal” of becoming a fully-fledged “modern socialist country” by 2049, the 100-year anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.