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800 million: how China plans to double its middle-income population

China projects it will have 800 million people living on middle incomes in 10 years, as it pledges to ‘invest more in people’

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Shoppers ride an escalator in a mall in Beijing. China projects its middle-income population will reach 800 million within the next 10 years. Photo: Reuters
Mandy Zuoin Shanghai

Xiao Mei, a kindergarten teaching assistant living in the suburbs of Hangzhou in eastern China, has barely seen her income rise for three years and is not optimistic about her chances of getting a pay rise any time soon. Still, she counts herself as relatively fortunate.

“At least I haven’t had my pay cut or lost my job,” she said, adding that several of her friends had suffered such setbacks recently.

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Earning around 6,000 yuan (US$845) a month – well below the local average of 13,500 yuan for public-sector workers, according to municipal government figures – the 38-year-old feels stuck in a low-income cohort and uncertain about her future prospects as China’s job market remains stubbornly sluggish.

Xiao’s plight reflects the scale of the challenge facing China as it embarks on an ambitious drive to nearly double the size of its middle-income population over the next decade.

According to the government’s most recent estimate, more than 400 million of China’s 1.4 billion people are currently living on a middle income. At a press conference last month, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao projected the figure would rise to 800 million in the next 10 years.

In its proposals for China’s next five-year plan, also released last month, the Communist Party’s Central Committee vowed to steadily expand the middle-income cohort to create an “olive-shaped” income distribution chart.

The goal reflects a shift in approach by Beijing, as the proposals call for the government to “invest more in people” by ramping up spending on human capital and social safety nets – from childcare and senior care to health and education.

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China’s traditional growth model based on investment in physical assets is now seeing diminishing returns, and the country needs to start investing more in human capital if it is to remain competitive and win the global technology race, according to a guide to the next five-year plan’s proposals issued by the party-run Xuexi Publishing House.

“China has long underinvested in people’s livelihoods and holistic development,” the guide stated. “Boosting funding for education, healthcare, and senior care is essential to safeguard and improve livelihoods, achieve high-quality living and promote prosperity for all.”

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