China can sustain 5 to 6% GDP growth through 2035: economist
Tech, talent and the Chinese system give Beijing unique advantages over other late-developing economies, top economist says
Justin Lin Yifu, dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University and a former chief economist at the World Bank, said China could achieve breakthroughs in US technology “choke points” within five years and raise its per capita gross domestic product to about half that of America’s by 2049.
“Once our nation’s per capita GDP is half that of the United States, the great goal of national rejuvenation will be realised. At that point, US-China relations will also improve,” Lin wrote in a commentary published in the Beijing Daily.
He said China has the capacity to sustain per capita GDP growth of about 8 per cent through 2035, supported by productivity gains and its “latecomer” advantage – where developing countries learn from the innovations, successes and failures of early movers.
Factoring in structural constraints such as a rapidly ageing population, Lin argued the country could still deliver average annual GDP growth of 5 to 6 per cent through 2035, before moderating to 3 to 4 per cent between 2036 and 2049.
By mid-century, China’s three eastern municipalities and five coastal provinces could reach developmental levels comparable to those of the US, he said.