China’s demographic alarms blare as births hit historic low and population shrinks again
With Beijing having accelerated family-support policies and childcare subsidies, analysts warn that structural reforms are vital to arrest the deepening slide
China’s birth count plummeted to a record low last year, falling by about 10 million from its 2016 peak and slashing the total by more than half in less than a decade, as the country’s population shrank for a fourth consecutive year.
China’s total population also fell by 3.39 million in 2025 to 1.4049 billion from 1.4083 billion a year earlier, the bureau said. By sheer numbers, that marked the steepest annual population decline on record, apart from during China’s devastating famine from 1959 to 1961.
Meanwhile, about 11.31 million people died last year – one of the highest totals in five decades.
“The pace of the decline is striking, particularly in the absence of major shocks,” said Su Yue, principal economist for China at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
She added that a reluctance among young people to get married, along with rising economic pressures – particularly an increase for women in the perceived cost of stepping away from employment – served as major birth deterrents.
“The data should serve as a strong signal for policymakers to place greater emphasis on domestic structural reforms,” she noted, calling for a more forceful policy response on fertility in the face of a shrinking population and the risk of a smaller consumer base in the future.
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What might China do to address its record low birth rate and declining population?
Over the past year, China has accelerated efforts to shore up its faltering birth rate by rolling out a series of family-support policies aimed at lowering child-rearing costs and easing the pressures that have deterred couples from having children.