China’s Russian oil imports spike in early 2026, but Iran war changes outlook
China’s need to bolster crude stockpiles amid rising geopolitical risks likely to have been a factor behind pre-war import surge, analyst says
But the total import value rose just 5.8 per cent in US dollar terms.
“China has been an opportunistic oil buyer, capitalising on periods of low oil prices to fill its stockpile,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
He said China was likely to have been aware of rising geopolitical risks and to have stockpiled crude in January and February, when oil markets had not yet priced in the Middle East conflict.
Russian crude – which has traded at a steep discount since Western sanctions were first imposed following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine – comprised over one-fifth of China’s total imported crude by volume in the first two months of the year.
But a shifting of sanctions policies designed to stabilise global energy markets and rising demand from other countries amid the US-Israel war with Iran could moderate Russia’s shipments of crude to China in the coming months, analysts said.
At least seven tankers initially on the way to China had been diverted to India, with some cargoes possibly being resold at higher prices, David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa, said during a webinar on Tuesday.
Since oil prices are high and China has enough inventory, it’s likely to cut its oil purchases