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China’s economy ‘weaker than expected’ in April as Iran war headwinds bite

China’s retail sales growth fell to just 0.2 per cent in April, while industrial output and fixed-asset investment softened more than forecast

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An employee works at a guitar factory in Yongzhou, Hunan province, on May 11. Photo: Xinhua
He Huifengin GuangdongandXinyi Wuin Beijing

The Chinese economy showed signs of slowing in April, as industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all missed expectations amid a deepening global energy crisis, the latest data shows.

Retail sales rose by just 0.2 per cent year on year in April, well below the 1.7 per cent growth recorded in March, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Monday. Economists polled by the Yicai Research Institute had forecast a 2 per cent increase.

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China’s industrial output, meanwhile, grew by 4.1 per cent year on year in April, down from 5.7 per cent the previous month and below a 5.63 per cent projection by economists polled by financial data provider Wind.

Fu Linghui, a bureau spokesperson, stressed at a press briefing that the Chinese economy had shown “strong resilience” despite the prolonged Middle East conflict, volatile energy prices and disruptions to global supply chains.

“However, we must also recognise that there are currently many external uncertainties, and the cost pressures on enterprises have increased, with some enterprises still facing difficulties,” he added.
China’s economy recorded strong growth through the first quarter of 2026 despite the breakout of the US-Israel war on Iran, with the country’s gross domestic product rising 5 per cent year on year – at the top end of the government’s 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent annual target.
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But geopolitical volatility fuelled by the conflict in the Middle East appears to be increasingly weighing on the world’s second-largest economy as the war drags on.

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