China’s population ageing seen as ‘inevitable’ before 2050. Why push more births?
Raising the fertility rate above 1.3 still remains crucial to preventing a far worse scenario later in the century, analysts say
“A rapid increase in China’s ageing population rate before 2050 is inevitable,” wrote analysts led by Li Xunlei, chief economist at Zhongtai Securities, in the report.
Under an optimistic scenario in which China’s total fertility rate rose to above 1.3 from the current level of about 1.05, the share of the population aged 65 and over would still reach 29 per cent by mid-century, according to the report.
According to United Nations demographic standards, a total fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman is generally required to maintain a stable population over the long term – without relying on immigration. Major economies across East Asia, however, have seen their rates fall significantly below this baseline.
Although raising the fertility rate to 1.3 would not slow China’s demographic ageing in the short term, the report’s authors noted that it would significantly ease the dependency ratio – which measures the economic burden on the workforce by comparing the share of children and retirees to the working-age population. In this scenario, the ratio would sit at 74 per cent by the end of the century, according to the report.
Conversely, if fertility rates continued to decline, the ratio could reach 120 per cent by 2100, leaving the country with more dependents than working-age citizens.