China’s power grid no longer keeping pace with green energy capacity, study says

China is building more wind and solar capacity than the rest of the world combined, but transmission bottlenecks risk prolonging its reliance on coal, according to a report published on Tuesday by Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

More than 500 gigawatts (GW) of China’s planned 1,360GW of utility-scale wind and solar projects were under construction, enough to put the country on track to meet its 2030 target to have wind and solar account for more than half of its installed power capacity by the end of this year, well ahead of schedule, the report said.

But the grid is not keeping pace. Much of the wind and solar power generated in the northwest and north cannot reach demand centres in the east.

GEM estimated around 315GW of megabase capacity would rely on outbound transmission by 2030, requiring about 27 dedicated ultra-high voltage direct current (UHVDC) lines, which send electricity over long distances with lower losses.

China’s latest five-year plan, however, outlines future capacity equivalent to only about 10 lines, some carrying hydropower rather than wind and solar.

And the strain is already visible. Solar curtailment – electricity that could have been generated but was withheld – reached 10 to 17 per cent last year in the northwestern provinces and regions like Qinghai, Xinjiang and Gansu. Wind curtailment across northern and northwestern corridors ranged from 4 per cent and 9 per cent. Actual curtailment rates were likely higher, the report said.