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China’s exports grew by 29.9 per cent in 2021 compared to the previous year, while imports last year grew by 30.1 per cent over the same period, customs data released on Friday showed. Photo: Bloomberg

China trade: strong performance in 2021, but signs of economic slowdown visible in December

  • China’s exports grew by 29.9 per cent in 2021 compared to the previous year, while imports last year grew by 30.1 per cent over the same period
  • In December, exports grew by 20.9 from a year earlier, while imports rose by 19.5 per cent
China trade

China enjoyed a strong trade performance in 2021, although signs of an overall economic slowdown were highlighted by slowing import and export growth in December.

Exports grew by 29.9 per cent in 2021 compared to the previous year, while imports last year grew by 30.1 per cent over the same period, customs data released on Friday showed.

In December, exports grew by 20.9 per cent year earlier to US$340.498 billion, down from the 22 per cent growth in November. This was above expectations for an increase of 20 per cent predicted in a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

Imports, meanwhile, rose by 19.5 per cent in December from a year earlier, to US$246.035 billion – down from the 31.7 per cent growth in November, and below expectations in the Bloomberg survey for growth of 27.8 per cent.

Overall, China’s total trade surplus stood at US$94.46 billion in December.

The global pandemic remains serious, the external environment is becoming more complex and uncertain, and compounded with the high base of 2021, trade in 2022 will face certain pressure
Li Kuiwen
“Looking forward to this year, trade is facing increasing uncertainty, instability and imbalance. The Chinese economy is facing threefold pressure, including contraction of demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations,” Chinese customs spokesman Li Kuiwen said.

“The global pandemic remains serious, the external environment is becoming more complex and uncertain, and compounded with the high base of 2021, trade in 2022 will face certain pressure.

“While facing squarely these difficulties and challenges, we should also see that China’s economy is resilient, and the long-term positive fundamentals will not change. We should strengthen our resolve in maintaining stable trade.”

China’s economy had a robust start in 2021 driven by strong growth in exports, but began to lose steam in the second half of the year amid a series of regulatory clampdowns in real estate, technology and education.

China will release its full-year and fourth-quarter gross domestic product data on Monday, with expectations the growth rate in the October-December period will be slower than the 4.9 per cent growth in the third quarter.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have already downgraded China’s growth to 8 per cent for 2021 from previous estimates of 8.5 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively.

With the phase-one trade deal having expired at the end of December, China’s imports from the United States rose by 3.3 per cent to US$17.13 billion last month, while exports rose by 21.1 per cent to US$56.365 billion. In December, China’s trade surplus with the US rose by 31.14 per cent to US$39.23 billion.

For the whole of 2021, China’s imports from the US rose by 32.7 per cent to US$179.53 billion, while exports rose by 27.5 per cent to US$576.11 billion. In 2021, China’s trade surplus with the US rose by 25.14 per cent to US$396.583 billion.

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The US has said it intends to hold China accountable to the two-year phase-one trade deal, which contained a commitment from Beijing to buy, over two years, at least US$200 billion of American goods and services more than it did in 2017.

China, though, is believed to be significantly short, with a December report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics showing China’s imports of covered goods reached 62 per cent as of the end of November, while US export figures put the figure at 60 per cent.

The 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) continued to be China’s largest trade partner, followed by the European Union and the US.

China’s exports to the 10 Asean countries rose to US$49.76 billion in December, up by 12 per cent compared with a year earlier, while imports rose by 22.53 per cent to US$39.65 billion.

China says RCEP pact gives it ‘powerful leverage’ in trade, investment

Amid their ongoing trade conflict, China’s trade deficit with Australia widened by 18.89 per cent from a year ago to US$4.55 billion in December.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free-trade agreement between the 10 Asean members plus Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea took effect in most countries on January 1.

Tariffs on more than 65 per cent of trade in goods are expected to immediately reach zero under the regional agreement, and that figure is expected to rise to around 90 per cent over 20 years.

China’s exports to the European Union rose by 25.65 per cent from a year earlier to US$52.85 billion in December, while imports fell by 2.91 per cent to US$27.71 billion.

We expect China’s exports to remain strong in the first quarter because of resilient global demand and worsening pandemic situations in many developing countries
Zhang Zhiwei

“Exports exceeded expectation again in December, which may reflect the Omicron damage to the global supply chain. Export orders may have shifted to China from other developing countries. On the other hand, global demand remained strong, as developed countries maintained their policies to keep economic activities unrestricted,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“We expect China’s exports to remain strong in the first quarter because of resilient global demand and worsening pandemic situations in many developing countries. Currently, strong exports may be the only driver helping China’s economy.

“We expect infrastructure investment to be the second driver picking up in the next few months. Nonetheless, the economic outlook in the first quarter is set to face more downside risks than upside due to coronavirus outbreaks in many cities.”

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