The March figure was slightly above the median forecast of a Bloomberg survey of analysts, which had predicted a fall to 47.3.

But the reading still means that China’s factory activities were in the worst contraction since February 2020, when the early impact of the pandemic resulted in a PMI of 35.7.

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The official non-manufacturing PMI, which measures business sentiment in the services and construction sectors, tumbled to 41.9 in April from 48.4 in March.

This was far below the Bloomberg survey of analysts, which had predicted a fall to 46. The reading was also the lowest since February 2020 and the second lowest on record.

The official composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, slumped from 48.8 in March to 42.7 in April, which was also the lowest since February 2020 and the second lowest on record.

The figures give an early insight into the state of the Chinese economy in the second quarter and the impact of the strict lockdown in Shanghai, the country’s biggest economic centre, and other cities.

“This round of outbreaks was wide and frequent in many spots, some companies have reduced or stopped production,” Zhao Qinghe, a senior NBS statistician, said in a statement on Saturday.

He said that many companies reported increasing difficulties in logistics and transport, along with a backlog of supplies of raw materials and parts.

“But we need to see that the fundamentals of the long-term improvements in the Chinese economy have not changed,” he added.

However, it also said that local authorities should “minimise the impact of the outbreaks on economic and social development”

“That implied there might be some adjustment [in the anti-Covid measures],” said Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the economic policy commission under the China Association of Policy Science, noting the current draconian measures were “very disruptive”.

“[The challenge] of course is very big. Investment may have faster effects, while consumption is a slow variable,” he said.

“If the outbreaks are not properly controlled, employment will not be guaranteed, therefore neither will income and consumption.”

Within the official manufacturing PMI, the subindex for production in April fell to 44.4, down from 49.5 in March, while the subindex for new orders dropped to 42.6 from 48.8 in March. New export orders, meanwhile, declined to 41.6, compared with 47.2 a month earlier.

Within the official non-manufacturing PMI, the construction subindex fell to 52.7 in April from 58.1 in March, while the service subindex fell to 40 from 46.7.

“Most economic indicators will likely show negative growth in April,” Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said on Saturday that predicted negative second quarter growth.

“The key issue going forward is how the government will fine-tune their ‘zero-tolerance’ policy to mitigate the economic damage.”

Meanwhile, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI fell to 46 in April from 48.1 in March.

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The figure was worse than the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, which had predicted a reading of 47. The reading was also the lowest since that of 2020 March.

The Caixin/Markit PMI focuses on small, private firms unlike the official index whose respondents come mostly from larger, state-owned firms.

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs were expected to rebound to 48.5 and 47.5 in May

“Caseloads appear to be moderating and thus fewer cities could be placed under lockdowns,” he said on Saturday.

“However, we remain deeply concerned about growth, as the Shanghai lockdown may continue for a few more weeks, the Covid-19 situation in Beijing is still quite uncertain, the pace of business resumption in reopening regions could be slow amid the new normal of day-to-day mass testing and as Beijing has dug in its heels with a strict zero-Covid Strategy.”