Explainer | China population: with 2022 set to be a turning point, what’s next as economy, coronavirus take toll?

After increasing by just 480,000 to 1.4126 billion last year, demographers have predicted that China’s population could reach a turning point in 2022

Some 13 out of China’s 31 provincial-level jurisdictions saw their populations shrink last year, with six suffering declines for the first time in modern history

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China had 267.36 million people aged over 60 at the end of 2021, representing 18.9 per cent of the population, up from 264.02 million a year earlier. Photo: AP

Published: 7:00am, 19 Dec 2022

As China’s path to fully reopening remains murky and chaotic with mounting economic headwinds, one pitfall seems to be more inevitable than others – the looming demographic crisis.

Demographers have predicted that China’s population could reach a turning point in 2022, with bleak birth rates and anecdotal evidence indicating that the increasing economic and political pressures have taken a toll.

The 20th party congress in November highlighted that “timely adjustments” have already been made to China’s childbirth policy, while President Xi Jinping also promised further improvements.

Demographers, though, have argued that it will be difficult for China to reverse the effects of its previous one-child policy amid the ongoing economic disruptions and changing attitudes within society towards marriage and family.

What key population figures were revealed in 2022?

Mothers in China gave birth to just 10.62 million babies in 2021, representing an 11.5 per cent drop from 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed in January.

The national death rate was 7.18 per thousand last year, putting the national growth rate at 0.34 per thousand.

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