China trade: exports to ‘contract until middle of the year’, but reopening demand set to lift imports
- China’s exports fell by 9.9 per cent in December compared with a year earlier, while imports fell by 7.5 per cent last month
- Overall in 2022, exports rose by 7 per cent and imports rose by 1.1 per cent, while China’s trade surplus last year stood at US$877.6 billion
Amid an abrupt and chaotic reopening, China’s exports in December recorded the biggest year-on-year slump since the Wuhan lockdown in early 2020, with further contraction expected in the coming months, analysts said.
“This can be pinned on weakening global demand for Chinese goods, as well as some disruption to logistics networks and goods supply due to labour shortages amid the reopening wave of infections,” said Zichun Huang and Julian Evans-Pritchard, economists at Capital Economics.
Shipments to the United States and European Union continued to tumble sharply, falling by 19.51 and 17.5 per cent, respectively, compared to a year earlier.
Though supply-side disruptions are diminishing as labour shortages fade amid waning infections, with growth outside China still slowing, exports may continue to “contract until the middle of the year”, Huang and Evans-Pritchard added.