China population: 7 ways to boost the birth rate, according to experts

China arrived at a turning point in 2022 when deaths outnumbered births, resulting in the first population decline in six decades. The number of newborns fell to 9.56 million – the lowest annual total in China’s modern history and the first time the figure has dipped below 10 million. While some experts say China will see a period of endless population decline from now on, others argue the population will fluctuate around zero growth for a few years, with small rebounds likely to occur after the coronavirus pandemic. 7 takeaways from China’s 2022 population figures Nevertheless, the consensus is that China’s population has peaked, and authorities must now do their best to accommodate an ageing society and changing demographic structure. Still, more could – and should – be done to boost fertility rates, according to demographers. Here are seven suggestions from experts. 1. Drop family planning policies The effect of scrapping China’s family-planning policies and ending limits on births is debatable. Surveys and independent research show only a small number of couples would want to have more than three children, as most are put off by the cost of living and lack of childcare support . But ending the three-child policy and encouraging unlimited births would send a clear signal and indicate a complete shift in policy, said independent demographer He Yafu. 2. Cash incentives Over the past two years, authorities across China have rolled out financial incentives to encourage couples to have kids. This year, parents having a third child or more in Shenzhen will be eligible for a cash allowance of 19,000 yuan (US$2,800) until the child turns three years old. In Jinan, the capital city of eastern Shandong province, mothers who give birth to a second or third child this year will receive a childcare subsidy of 600 yuan each month until he or she turns three. But critics say that compared with the actual cost of raising a child, the subsidies are far from sufficient. 3. Change public attitudes Since the one-child policy was enacted in the 1980s, the prevailing message the public received has been the fewer children the better. Despite being abandoned in January 2016 in favour of a two-child policy – which later became a three-child policy – it has shaped the thinking of generations born before the turn of the century because of ubiquitous propaganda. It is vital to reverse this attitude through textbooks and public messaging, and educate pupils that the more children the better, He said. 4. Make childcare affordable Children in China are only eligible for kindergarten after turning three years old, but the cost for many working and middle class families is a huge burden. The share of “inexpensive” public kindergartners in China dropped from 77 per cent of the total in 1997 to 38.4 per cent in 2019, according to data from the Ministry of Education. Childcare for children under the age of three is another problem, especially in rural areas, due to an undersupply of nurseries. Why are Chinese millennials choosing not to have kids? According to the education ministry, only about 4.71 per cent of children admitted to nurseries in 2019 were under three years old, well below the European Union average of 35 per cent or the 32 per cent average among countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Furthermore, due to the limited number of public preschools, many families are forced to choose expensive private preschools, adding pressure to household finances. 5. Improve women’s rights in the workplace Married women with children are more vulnerable to discrimination in the job market. Many are forced to choose between children and their career, as women who want a family are often held back in the early stages of their careers due to child-rearing responsibilities. More than half of Chinese women have been asked about their marital status and family plans during job interviews, according to a March 2021 report by recruitment agency Zhaopin, while less than a quarter of men were asked the same questions. Normalising domestic roles for men and strengthening father-specific leave would also help promote equal opportunities in the workplace, experts say. 6. More research There is not enough data to truly understand why Chinese people are reluctant to have babies, said Yuan Xin, vice-president of the China Population Association and a professor of demography at Nankai University in Tianjin. “What are other factors besides the high housing prices, expensive education and nurseries?” he said. It is important to understand the fundamental changes in people’s beliefs and what new generations think about having kids, he said. 7. Enhance parental leave Given the scale of China’s demographic crisis, provinces across the country have begun stepping up parental leave entitlements . Beijing, for example, added 60 days to maternity leave effective November 2021, bringing the total to 158. Paternity leave is 15 days. In Jinan, mothers are now entitled to 158 days of maternity leave for each child and fathers will receive at least 15. Parents with children below the age of three can have annual parental leave of 10 or more days. Last year, Jiangsu became the first province to subsidise companies for paying insurance to female employees during their second and third period of maternity leave, a policy that could help counter discrimination against women in hiring. But China still lags most OECD countries, where the average length of paid leave to mothers was 51 weeks in 2022. Almost all offer mothers an additional one year or more of employment-protected leave. Demographers and women’s rights advocates are also pushing authorities to improve the parental leave for fathers , which will not only encourage husbands to share childcare responsibilities, but offset some of the sacrifices women are making.