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In this edition of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the news that China’s population dropped by 850,000 people last year and what, if anything, Beijing can do. Photo: AP

Economy Economic Indicators

Global Impact: after years of telling people to only have one child, China’s population finally declines, deepening demographic crisis

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world
In this edition, we look at the news that China’s population dropped by 850,000 people last year and what, if anything, Beijing can do

China's population

Andrew Mullen

Published: 2:00pm, 6 Feb, 2023

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Well, it finally happened. After much speculation, China’s population officially declined last year. And China’s population ranking is soon set to match that of its economy, both as the second-largest in the world, given that India is poised to claim the mantle as the world’s most populous nation.

But while China is still expected to eventually overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy, the outlook for a recovery in the size of its population is far less optimistic.

Last year, China’s population declined for the first time in six decades, with the national birth rate falling to a record low, and the nation’s deepening demographic crisis threatening far-reaching implications for economic growth.

Deaths outnumbered births in China as its overall population plummeted by 850,000 to 1.4118 billion, down from 1.4126 billion a year earlier.

Mothers in China had 9.56 million babies last year, a 9.98 per cent drop from 10.62 million in 2021, meaning that the national birth rate fell to a record low of 6.77 births for every 1,000 people in 2022, down from 7.52 in 2021.

High child-rearing costs, the new generation’s shifting ideologies on family and marriages, as well as the slowing economic growth amid China’s draconian coronavirus policies, were all blamed for catalysing the population decline.

Demographers now fear China’s population will likely trend down in the coming years, with the decline irreversible due to the knock-on effect of the notorious one-child policy that was only relaxed in 2016.

02:36

India set to overtake China as the world's most populous country in 2023, UN predicts

The last time that deaths outnumbered births in China was 1961, when the nation was still reeling from Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward as tens of millions of people died of starvation during the Great Famine that swept through the country from 1958-61.

India may have already overtaken China to become the world’s most populous nation after its population stood at 1.417 billion at the end of 2022. The United Nations had expected the milestone to be reached later this year.

And without effective fertility-support policies, China’s newborns are expected to fall to one-third of India’s by 2050 and drop to a quarter by the end of the century.

China’s birth problem can be traced back to its one-child policy, which finally got an upgrade to a two-child allowance in 2016 before the results of the 2020 census forced Beijing to up it to three.

Women who have progressed up the career ladder as the only child of families that had to adhere to the one-child policy are now being expected to put their careers on hold to have children.

And therein lies the major problem - how can China convince people to do this for the good of the nation?

Some provinces are offering increasing cash incentives for having more children, but they just don’t seem to be enough, given the associated costs of raising a child, including food, clothing and education, to name a few.

Couples having a third child or more in Shenzhen will be eligible for a total cash allowance of 19,000 yuan (US$2,800) until the child turns three years old. Payments for having a first and second child will be 7,500 and 11,000 yuan, respectively.

02:14

Chinese reluctant to have children as China reports first population fall in 61 years

Thus, if a couple has three children, they could receive US$5,500 by the time the third child turns three, averaging US$1,850 per child over the three years. For me in Hong Kong, that would mean just a couple of months of private education, if even that.

Would more maternity and paternity leave help? In the short-term, maybe, but some may worry about job security, while the number of first-time marriages in China is also declining.

The number of people getting married for the first time dropped to 11.6 million last year, almost 700,000 down from the previous year. This was well below the peak of 23.9 million in 2013.

This is in a country that holds family values highly, and where couples are expected to be married before having children. The unwillingness to get married and have children is also coming at a time of the lying flat, or tang ping, movement in China that basically advocates doing nothing.

China long managed to stop people from having too many children, as it was worried about overpopulation. But now, when it is faced with a decline, it can’t quite seem to stem the tide.

There is also the issue of an ageing population, which is putting pressure on the workforce. Controversial plans to delay the retirement age are seen as not enough, as people are already working later into life.

China is not the only one facing this worrisome predicament. The likes of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong are in similar boats. But you can bet Beijing is hoping it turns into more of a Cinderella story than that of the Titanic.

60 second catch-up

Free flow of labour ‘vital’ to the health of poorer regions as national workforce shrinks

China’s population faces ‘endless period of decline’, with demographic shift far from finished

Raising retirement ages won’t ‘make a big difference’ in workforce size amid demographic crises

03:18

China reports first population decline in 6 decades, with birth rate at record low in 2022

2022 marks first decline in China population in 60 years

Opinion: No reason to fret over China’s shrinking population with solutions already in the work

Explainer: 7 ways to boost the birth rate, according to experts

Opinion: China must solve its population crisis, but not by government diktat

Deep Dives

‘Getting married is like going to hell’: why more young Chinese are falling out of love with tying the knot

A report about the drop in marriage rates started trending over the Lunar New Year holiday, a time many people visit their families
Social media users said they were put off by the high costs of marriage and increasing difficulty of getting divorced

The decline in the number of people in China getting married for the first time has been welcomed by some younger Chinese, who signalled their growing reluctance to tie the knot.

They said the increasing costs of marrying and raising a family, and changes to the law to make it harder to get divorced, all acted as deterrents.

Young Chinese say real estate isn’t the nest egg it was once all cracked up to be

China’s older generation invested considerable savings in property, buying up homes and flats that would hopefully appreciate over the years, but times are changing
While Chinese leaders still consider real estate to be a pillar of the nation’s economy, investor confidence appears to be waning among members of Generation Z

Once a primary means of wealth accumulation for China’s middle class, real estate is rapidly losing its appeal among the younger generation, and experts say the change highlights how the nation’s rapid demographic shift has far-reaching implications.

Patrick Lu, 32, a lawyer in the southern metropolis of Guangzhou, is disinterested in investing in housing, unlike his parents who own a couple of two-bedroom apartments in the city.

China population: new births to fall to a third of India’s by 2050 without ‘powerful fertility support’

As China’s workforce continues to shrink, labour costs will keep rising and some manufacturing industries will look to offshore, demographers say
By 2050, the median age in China will be 50, while it will be 42.3 years old in the United States and 37.5 in India, says YuWa Population Research Institute

Without effective fertility support policies, newborns in China will fall to one third of India by 2050 and drop to a quarter by the end of the century, demographers say, amid concerns about far-reaching economic implications and disappearing labour dividends for the world’s No 2 economy.

“Looking at the long-term trends, due to the low fertility rate and the continuous decline in the number of women of childbearing age, the number of new births will remain in a period of rapid decline,” said Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute in a report on Thursday.

What can China do with India set to become world’s most populous nation?

Official data confirming China’s population is in decline has set off renewed debate about the economic implications
China must respond by shifting its development model to focus on technology upgrading and fostering talent, experts say

China’s declining population will not necessarily lead to an economic slump, though more must be done to respond to the country’s falling birth rates and take advantage of the changing demographic structure, experts say.

Government data released on Tuesday confirmed that China’s population dropped by 850,000 people to 1.4118 billion in 2022, down from 1.4126 billion a year earlier.

China unveils new plan for wider robot use from manufacturing to agriculture, as population shrinks

Beijing wants to accelerate the application of robotics in manufacturing, agriculture, logistics, energy, healthcare, education and elderly services
The blueprint came after China registered more deaths than births last year, marking the first time that the country’s population had dropped since the 1960s

China has published a new action plan laying out 10 industries where it wants to use more robots, as the country rushes to automate sectors from manufacturing to agriculture after recording its first population decline in six decades.

Under the “Robot + Application Action Plan” released earlier this week by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and 17 other government agencies, Beijing will accelerate the application of robotics in manufacturing, agriculture, logistics, energy, healthcare, education and elderly services, among other areas.

China population: 7 takeaways from 2022 figures

China’s population fell by 850,000 to 1.4118 billion in 2022 as mothers had 9.56 million babies last year, compared with 10.41 million total deaths
China’s national birth rate fell to a record low of 6.77 births for every 1,000 people in 2022, down from 7.52 in 2021

China’s population plummeted by 850,000 people to 1.4118 billion in 2022, down from 1.4126 billion a year earlier.

This represented the first decline in China’s population since 1961.

Global Impact is a fortnightly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.