China population: life expectancy to increase to over 80 by 2035, as high as 90 for women in affluent areas, study shows

Life expectancy at birth in China is projected to increase to 81.3 by 2035, according to a paper published in the The Lancet Public Health

The study by a group of Chinese researchers follows China’s birth rate falling to a record low last year as its overall population fell for the first time in six decades

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Last year, China’s birth rate fell to a record low of 6.77 per 1,000 people, with the total number of newborns falling to 9.56 million – the nation’s lowest total in modern history and the first time the figure has dipped below 10 million. Photo: AP

Published: 9:30pm, 6 Apr 2023

People in China will live to over 80 on average by 2035, contributing to one of the world’s fastest and largest ageing populations, according to a study by a group of Chinese researchers published in a leading medical journal.

Life expectancy at birth is projected to increase to 81.3 by 2035, with females in some affluent areas set to reach 90, according to the paper published in The Lancet Public Health last week.

Women in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and Zhejiang will have at least a 50 per cent chance to surpass a life expectancy of 90 by 2035, said the study, led by professor Zhou Maigeng, deputy director of the National Centre for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention under the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.

Life expectancy – a key indicator of population health – at birth is the number of years a newborn can expect to live on average on condition that the current death rate does not change.

China’s rapidly ageing population has created concerns for its economic growth and overall prosperity, with the number of retirees set to skyrocket and the number of young workers set to shrink, placing extra strain on the healthcare system.

The National Health Commission announced last year that China’s average life expectancy was around 78 in 2021, already higher than the United States, which stood at 76.1.

China is expected to have more than 400 million people – roughly the same as the current populations of the United States and Britain combined – aged 60 and above by 2035.

A series of policies have been rolled out or are under deliberation to tackle the looming demographic crisis, including encouraging couples to have three children and delaying the retirement age.

Increases in life expectancy might be associated with declines in fertility and reductions in infant mortality

Study led by professor Zhou Maigeng