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China's economic recovery
EconomyEconomic Indicators

Explainer | 5 takeaways from China’s April economic data as youth unemployment set dismal record

  • China’s jobless rate for the 16-24 age group hit an all-time high in April, while retail sales and industrial production fell short of expectations
  • Fixed-asset investment ‘held up reasonably well’ in April, analysts said, while investment in the property sector fell again

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Industrial production, a gauge of activity in the manufacturing, mining and utilities sectors, rose by 5.6 per cent in April, year on year. Photo: AFP
Andrew Mullen

1. Employment

The jobless rate for the 16-24 age group in China hit a record high of 20.4 per cent in April, up from 19.6 per cent in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed.

The overall urban surveyed jobless rate stood at 5.2 per cent in April, down from 5.3 per cent in March.

“The unemployment rate for the young labour force rose above 20 per cent, which is a worrying sign,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

2. Retail sales

Retail sales in China rose by 18.4 per cent in April, year on year – below an expected rise of 20.2 per cent, but up from the 10.6 per cent increase in March.
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However, the surge was largely caused by a low comparison base, as the figure had dropped by 11.1 per cent in April last year.

Retail sales last month also fell by 7.8 per cent from March, the official data showed.

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“There was also slower-than-expected retail sales growth in April at 0.49 per cent, month on month, from 0.78 per cent month on month in March (18.4 per cent year on year versus 21.9 per cent year on year consensus and 10.9 per cent year on year in March),” said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

“This suggests consumers were saving money in April for spending on the holidays in May. Consumers are cautious when they spend. Another reason for the slower-than-consensus growth was due to reductions in spending on home decoration.

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