Explainer | China trade: 5 takeaways from June’s data as exports tumbled
- China’s exports fell by 12.4 per cent in June compared with a year earlier, while imports fell by 6.8 per cent last month
- Analysts expect exports to decline further before bottoming out towards the end of the year, but imports are likely to pick up in the coming months
1. Weak demand weighs on exports
The June figure was below expectations for a fall of 10.2 per cent, according to Wind, a leading provider of financial information services in China, and represented the biggest year-on-year contraction since dropping by 17.7 per cent in combined figures for January and February 2020.
Export volumes also fell to a six-month low in June.
“With the global downturn in goods demand continuing to weigh on exports, we think exports will decline further for now before bottoming out towards the end of the year,” said analysts at Capital Economics.
In the first half of the year, China’s exports declined by 3.2 per cent compared with the same period in 2022.
2. Commodity prices drive down imports
China’s imports fell by 6.8 per cent in June from a year earlier to US$214.7 billion, down from a fall of 4.5 per cent in May, and were below Wind’s expectations for a fall of 3.8 per cent.