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China’s exports to most of its major trading partners continued to shrink in August. Photo: Xinhua

China trade: headwinds remain despite August’s marginal improvement, rebound only short term

  • China’s exports fell by 8.8 per cent, year on year, to US$284.9 billion in August, although the decline narrowed from a fall of 14.5 per cent in July
  • China’s exports to most of its major trading partners continued to shrink, although the declines narrowed from July
China trade

A narrowing decline of China’s exports in August has failed to ease market concerns, with analysts expecting external demand to remain soft in coming months, despite the traditional high season of Christmas looming.

Exports tumbled for the fourth consecutive month in August, falling by 8.8 per cent compared to a year earlier to US$284.9 billion, according to customs data released on Thursday.

The decline, however, narrowed from a fall of 14.5 per cent in July, and was above the forecast by Chinese financial data provider Wind for a drop of 9.5 per cent.
The rebound took place amid the yuan’s rapid depreciation – which makes Chinese products cheaper and more competitive – in August.

A lower base last year and the delayed delivery of orders disrupted by typhoons in mid-July also contributed to the improvement, economists said.

Imports, meanwhile, fell by 7.3 per cent last month to US$216.5 billion, narrowing from a 12.4 per cent decline in July, and exceeding the expectations from Wind for a drop of 8.2 per cent.

“These figures are reported as values, so one remaining uncertainty is exactly how much of the increase simply represents higher prices,” said Andrew Tilton, chief Asia-Pacific economist with Goldman Sachs Research.

“For example, global oil prices increased significantly in August versus July, which likely affected China’s reported import values.”

The ongoing declines are also hampered by the global supply chain upheaval as a result of the US-led de-risking strategy, which could spell more trouble for the world’s second-largest economy as it struggles to carve out a path to a post-pandemic rebound.

Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, said the smaller decline was expected as the business environment has shown some improvement after several months of effort by the State Council, although other agencies introduced contradictory policies or laws that “neutralised these efforts”.

There should be some more short-term rebound in China’s trade and economy, but longer term concerns are still there
Chen Zhiwu

“There should be some more short-term rebound in China’s trade and economy, but longer term concerns are still there due to political and geopolitical factors,” he said.

China’s total trade surplus in August stood at US$68.4 billion, down from US$80.6 billion in July, as imports accelerated more than exports.

Heron Lim, assistant director and economist at Moody’s Analytics, said exports are expected to continue to retreat as weakness across the broader global economy will ensure new export orders remain soft.

“But as trade performance was already weakening from the second half of 2022, it will be slower,” he said.

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The data showed that China’s exports to most of its major trading partners continued to shrink, although the declines narrowed from July.

Shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – China’s largest trade partner – fell by 13.25 per cent compared to a year earlier, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Exports to the European Union, meanwhile, declined by 19.58 per cent, year on year.

Shipments to the United States dropped for the 13th consecutive month after falling by 9.53 per cent in August, although slightly improving from the double-digit declines in the previous three month.

The figures still suggest the headwinds remain despite some marginal improvement
Zhou Hao

Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, said while the August trade figures came in slightly better than expected, overall momentum remains lukewarm.

“In general, the figures still suggest the headwinds remain despite some marginal improvement,” Zhou said.

He added that several factors would determine if China’s trade growth has already hit the bottom, with domestic demand the most important as the recent moves in the property sector might provide some support in the short term.

“In the meantime, the rising oil prices suggest that the import growth in value terms might pick up somewhat in the foreseeable future,” Zhou added.

If the macro momentum doesn’t turn around soon, Beijing will likely launch more policy measures to boost growth in coming months
Zhang Zhiwei

Policymakers are, according to Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, focused on the domestic economic challenges, particularly the property market, as external demand remains weak.

“The wave of policy measures announced in the past few weeks help on the margin. We need time to see how effective these measures will be to stabilise the property market and overall macro outlook,” he said.

“Nonetheless, we think the policymakers have turned much more proactive than a few months ago.

“If the macro momentum doesn’t turn around soon, Beijing will likely launch more policy measures to boost growth in coming months.”

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