China GDP: annual forecasts cut to below Beijing’s target due to weak exports, property crisis

China has officially forecast growth of ‘around 5 per cent’ this year, with the world’s second-largest economy growing by 5.5 per cent in the first half of 2023

But China’s signature exports have fallen in each of the last four months, while a crisis in the property market has also pushed financial institutions to lower their forecasts

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China’s exports fell by 8.8 per cent in August compared with a year earlier. Photo: AFP

Published: 1:00pm, 11 Sep 2023Updated: 8:32pm, 12 Sep 2023

At least six international financial institutions have lowered their annual growth forecasts for China’s economy this year to below the government’s target due to falling export demand and a stubborn property crisis.

China has officially forecast growth of “around 5 per cent” this year following 5.5 per cent growth in the first half and 3 per cent last year.

But some institutions have downgraded forecasts from early 2023 or late last year, with a low of 4.5 per cent.

The outlooks by the likes of Barclays, JPMorgan Chase and UBS, which reflect the expectations of many overseas investors, present a challenge for the world’s second-largest economy despite Beijing’s upbeat talk about market sentiment.

“Largely due to a weaker property sector with little additional offset, but also foreseeing softer external demand, we downgrade China’s [gross domestic product] growth forecasts to 4.8 per cent for 2023 and 4.2 per cent for 2024,” UBS said last month.