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China GDP: economy predicted to hit 2023 growth target, but action still needed to ensure long-term stability

  • Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes China’s economy will grow by 5.1 per cent in the fourth quarter
  • But it warned that it is necessary to implement policies in advance to ensure the stable and healthy development of China’s economy next year

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After China’s manufacturing activity rebounded to expand for the first time in six months in September, economists at Mizuho said the positive momentum would continue into the fourth quarter. Photo: AFP
Luna Sunin Beijing

China is expected to achieve Beijing’s economic target for 2023, with a leading governmental think tank predicting 5.1 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter, but stronger countercyclical policies are still needed to ensure long-term stability.

The Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) also predicted the world’s second-largest economy grew by 4.6 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, down from 6.3 per cent growth in the second three months of the year.

Economic growth is largely set to be driven by the booming service sector, while new domestic and external challenges are emerging, it said in a report on Friday.

The Chinese economy is currently experiencing a period of favourable tailwinds for the service sector recovery
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

“The Chinese economy is currently experiencing a period of favourable tailwinds for the service sector recovery, coupled with the headwinds of declining global demand for manufacturing products,” the CASS report said.

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However, the economic rebound in the second half of the year is still expected to ensure annual growth of 5.1 per cent, meeting Beijing’s growth target for 2023 of around 5 per cent.

China is expected to release its third quarter GDP data next week, as well as key retail sales and industrial production data for September.

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It is, though, in the throes of an economic slowdown as demand remains subdued, while the slumping property market, debt-ridden local governments and a bleak export outlook continue to erode confidence in the private sector.

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