China GDP: economic resilience questioned as property cloud lingers, even with 2023 growth target in sight
- China’s economic recovery regained mild momentum in the third quarter, but real estate investment fell by 9.1 per cent in the first three quarters
- But officials said China only needs year-on-year growth of 4.4 per cent in the fourth quarter to achieve its full-year target of ‘around 5 per cent’
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China’s economy sees a resurgence in the third quarter, beating forecasts
More action is still needed to reinforce China’s economic resilience and unleash long-term growth potential, despite third-quarter data showing the world’s second-largest economy is on course to hit its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) target.
Top cadres of China’s Communist Party are set to convene the third plenum later this year, with the gathering typically focusing on economic issues. High hopes have mounted that the meeting could roll out forceful measures to consolidate the recovery footing for the coming months.
[A] hard landing in the property sector has not met with effective responses
Year on year, China’s GDP also beat market expectations and grew by 4.9 per cent in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday.
And the 5.2 per cent growth in the first nine months, year on year, would make Beijing’s “around 5 per cent” annual growth target accessible, although the road to recovery will remain bumpy due to multiple headwinds, analysts said.
“[A] hard landing in the property sector has not met with effective responses, meaning that it will remain the biggest downside risk in 2024”, said Tianchen Xu, senior China economist with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).
A local government debt crisis, weak investor and consumer confidence and intensifying US-led tech curbs are also adding to questions over China’s economic growth sustainability.