ExplainerChina trade: 4 takeaways from October’s data, with export growth sluggish amid soft demand, imports positive surprise

Exports fell for a sixth consecutive month in October, dropping by 6.4 per cent from a year earlier to US$274.8 billion

Imports grew by 3 per cent last month to US$218.3 billion, up from a 6.2 per cent decline in September

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China’s exports fell for a sixth consecutive month in October, dropping by 6.4 per cent from a year earlier to US$274.8 billion. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 7:00am, 8 Nov 2023

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1. Exports show external demand remains soft

China’s exports fell for a sixth consecutive month in October, dropping by 6.4 per cent from a year earlier to US$274.8 billion.

The decline widened from a contraction of 6.2 per cent in September, missing surveyed expectations of a 3.8 per cent drop, according to Chinese financial data provider Wind.

Analysts at Capital Economics said the fall compared to a year ago was primarily due to price effects, with the recent increase in manufacturing capacity and levelling off in demand encouraging exporters to reduce prices.

They said that after accounting for the fall in prices and for seasonality, export volumes were largely unchanged last month, staying near the record high they hit in September.

“Export growth remained sluggish as the economic momentum in the US and Europe slowed. External demand will likely weaken further in the next six months,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.