China population: marriages set to end 9-year run of declines in 2023, but demographic issues remain
- 5.69 million marriages were recorded in China in the first three quarters, with the trend set to push the annual total above 7 million for the first time since 2021
- Marriages in China plunged to the lowest recorded level since the late 1970s in 2022, amid a broader demographic crisis of falling births and an ageing population
China could end a nine-year streak of declining marriage registrations this year, with a swift rise in the number of newlyweds during the first three quarters likely to push the annual total above 7 million.
In the first nine months of 2023, 5.69 million marriages were registered in China, marking a notable increase of 245,000 compared to the same period last year, according to data released last week by the Ministry of Civil Affairs.
After 2.14 million marriages were recorded in the first three months, the figure stood at over 1.7 million in each subsequent quarter, setting a trend that is expected to push the annual total back above 7 million for the first time since 2021, although uncertainties remain whether the increase can be sustained.
“The rise in the number of newlyweds is partly due to piled-up demand for marriages suppressed by last year’s pandemic, now they’re showing a rebound sign this year,” said Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Society of Reform.
Amid a less favourable economic landscape, marriage has emerged as a comparatively accessible solution compared to job hunting or home purchases, offering couples an opportunity to pool resources, share living costs and mitigate financial risks, Peng said.
“We still need to wait for next year’s data before we can accurately judge whether this upwards trend will continue,” Peng added.
Young people are now downplaying the traditional notion of bringing up children for the purpose of being looked after in old age
“Besides, young people are now downplaying the traditional notion of bringing up children for the purpose of being looked after in old age,” Peng added.
With the baby boom tapering off since the late 1980s, the pool of young individuals of marriageable age has been declining.
The average age of first marriage in China has risen significantly from 24.89 in 2010 to 28.67 in 2020, according to the 2020 China Population Census Yearbook.
Even among couples opting to start a family, there is a reduced inclination to have children, as China’s firstborn fertility rate – the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime – dropped from 0.7 in 2019 to 0.5 in 2022.
This decline is accompanied by an increase in the average age for women having their first child from 26.4 to 27.4 over the same period.
Amid the growing demographic concerns, Beijing has taken action by allowing residents in 21 provinces to register marriages across provincial boundaries since June, eliminating the previous hurdle that forced young people to register in different provinces due to the hukou household registration system that controls access to public services based on the birthplace of the holder.
By the end of September, 197,000 cross-provincial marriages had been registered in China, more than 35 per cent of which came after the policy was launched, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs last month.
