China’s 2023 GDP forecasts twisted and turned as prognosticators puzzled over country’s future
- Institutions publishing predictions of China’s economic growth had to alter their estimates frequently in 2023
- After China lifted its pandemic lockdowns, the explosive recovery many had expected did not take place, forcing rapid-fire changes
Predictions about the fate of China’s gross domestic product (GDP), a flagship figure that steers global investment and trade, have bobbled to a greater degree than in pre-Covid 2019, according to historic data gathered by European consensus forecast provider FocusEconomics.
“It is always hard to make precise forecasts, but it is even more so lately,” said Liang Yan, a professor and chair of economics at Willamette University in the US state of Oregon. “First, coming out of Covid and lockdown has created much uncertainty and behavioural changes.
“With the sluggish real estate market and weak profit expectations, the lack of confidence weighed on the economy,” Liang added. “Second, policy changes have been adaptive rather than proactive. Policymakers put in some measures, wait to see the effects, then decide on the next step. This means the economy may seem to fare poorly, then improve somewhat, then weaken again, then more policy support to push it forward.”
For 2019, fluctuations in the roughly 60-institution consensus for the world’s second-biggest economy were within just 0.1 percentage point, hovering close to an average 6.3 per cent growth projection. Actual growth came in at 6.1 per cent.
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In 2019, the United Nations financial agency made forecasts in a tighter range: 6.2 per cent growth in January, 6.3 per cent in April, 6.2 per cent again in July and 6.1 per cent in October.