Explainer | China’s economic recovery ‘stagnated’: 4 takeaways from November’s manufacturing, services activity

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) remained in contraction in November, while the Caixin/S&P Global gauge unexpectedly expanded

The official non-manufacturing PMI fell, but the Caixin/S&P Global services PMI rose to a three-month high in November

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China’s official manufacturing and servcices purchasing managers’ indicies (PMI) disappointed in November, although the Caixin/S&P Global gauges both offered signs of recovery last month. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 7:00am, 6 Dec 2023

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1. Manufacturing activity remains largely unchanged

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) stood at 49.4 in November, compared with 49.5 in October.

The reading last month was lower than market expectations and also the lowest reading since hitting 49.3 in July.

Within the official manufacturing PMI, the new-orders subindex dropped to 49.4, down from 49.5 in October, while the new-export-orders subindex fell to 46.3 from 46.8 a month earlier.

“November’s continued decline in the official manufacturing PMI was broad-based,” said analysts at Nomura, with three of the five subindices contributing to the sequential decline in November.

Analysts at HSBC said the official manufacturing PMI was dragged down by a deeper contraction in new export orders, though they said business expectations improved again.

The headline reading rose and is consistent with factory activity remaining largely unchanged last month

Capital Economics

Meanwhile, in contrast, the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded in November, driven by rising orders.