China’s ‘sluggish’ trade to continue into 2024 even after exports edge up in November, unlikely to provide economic pillar

China’s exports rose by 0.5 per cent, year on year, in November, marking the first positive reading since April, while imports fell by 0.6 per cent

Shipments to the US grew for the first time since July last year, but analysts doubt if exports can contribute as a pillar of economic growth next year

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Imports fell by 0.6 per cent, year on year, last month to US$223.5 billion. Photo: Bloomberg

Published: 11:12am, 7 Dec 2023Updated: 6:30pm, 7 Dec 2023

Despite a modest rebound in exports last month, China’s overall trade outlook would remain bleak into next year amid persistent weak overseas demand and global supply chain realignment, according to analysts.

China’s exports were slightly better than expected in November, rising by 0.5 per cent from a year earlier to US$291.9 billion, compared to a fall of 6.4 per cent in October, according to customs data released on Thursday.

It marked the first positive growth in exports since April, thanks to a low base of comparison to last year and a pickup in shipments to the United States.

But China’s imports disappointed in November, dropping by 0.6 from a year earlier to US$223.5 billion, compared to 3 per cent growth in October, pointing to weak domestic demand.

Net exports are likely to provide a negative contribution to China’s economy next year

Ding Shuang

“China’s overall trade is still sluggish, and this trend is likely to persist throughout next year,” said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

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